Greggs, the UK-based bakery chain known for its sausage rolls and steak bakes, may face challenges amid the country’s current summer heatwaves, according to investment analysts. Rising temperatures, industry experts suggest, could deter customers from purchasing some of Greggs’ core menu items as the warmer weather shifts consumer preferences.

Andrew Wade, an analyst at investment bank Jefferies, noted that while Greggs remains confident about its half-year profit prospects, the hot weather is likely to have an adverse impact on sales. The bakery chain previously faced pressure during last year’s heatwave, resulting in a profit downgrade, though Wade indicated that a similar profit warning this year is unlikely. Nonetheless, he added that the potential for a robust summer trading season is diminishing.

In June, Greggs temporarily closed several outlets in the South East and Midlands regions due to extreme temperatures, a move that underscores the operational challenges posed by the heat. This comes against the backdrop of broader retail trends seen across the UK high street during the month, which also suffered from the heatwave’s effect on in-store sales.

Data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) revealed that although overall sales—including online—showed growth in June, physical store sales of non-food items declined by 1.1% compared to the previous year, falling below the 12-month average growth rate of 0.1%. BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson highlighted that while in-store sales were subdued because of soaring temperatures, online sales reached their highest proportions of the year, supported by well-timed promotional campaigns. Items related to cooling, such as electric fans and paddling pools, experienced strong demand, while categories like gaming and higher-value purchases struggled as consumers opted to spend time outdoors.

Jefferies’ “Sandwich Price Tracker” indicates that sandwich prices across the industry have remained steady since April. Greggs implemented price increases earlier this year alongside some competitors. Despite these hikes, Greggs’ pricing remains moderately positioned—around 12% higher than supermarket sandwich prices but still less expensive compared with rivals such as Marks & Spencer (+19%), Pret (+40%), and Boots (+42%).

As Greggs prepares to release its interim financial results later this month, industry watchers will closely monitor whether the bakery chain can navigate the challenges posed by the UK’s unusually hot summer.