China has significant potential to broaden the international use of its currency, the renminbi (RMB), through expanded trade and commodity settlements, supply chain financing, and growth in offshore markets, according to senior economists. They emphasized that this process will be gradual and largely dependent on ongoing reforms in global financial markets.

As the current global monetary system, dominated by the U.S. dollar, faces diminishing trust amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over the use of financial infrastructure as a geopolitical tool, the increased internationalization of the renminbi is seen as a way to promote a more inclusive and resilient global monetary framework.

Zhu Min, former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), described the internationalization of the renminbi as an “unstoppable” trend with a clear technical pathway already established. He challenged the common belief that the renminbi’s rise as a major international currency requires full convertibility and complete liberalization of China’s capital account.

“ We need to correct this old mindset,” Zhu said, highlighting the renminbi’s inclusion in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket, where it holds a 12.48 percent weighting behind the U.S. dollar and euro. This inclusion, he noted, demonstrates that major international usage of a currency does not necessarily hinge on full capital account liberalization.

Expanding renminbi usage in cross-border trade settlement is viewed by experts as a key mechanism for accelerating its global role. Miao Yanliang, chief strategist at China International Capital Corp., pointed out that trade settlement is a critical gateway for a currency to become truly global. He noted China’s position as the world’s largest trading nation, the biggest importer of crude oil, and a leading consumer of copper, iron ore, and soybeans as factors underpinning the renminbi’s potential to gain wider acceptance.

“China’s trade leverage is growing,” Miao said. “That trade position gives China a unique advantage to gradually enhance the convenience and acceptance of renminbi settlement.”

Recent geopolitical developments have further encouraged some commodity suppliers to explore using the renminbi for trade settlements, reflecting shifting dynamics in international commerce and finance. While the full extent and pace of the renminbi’s rise remain uncertain, current trends suggest its role in the global monetary system is expanding steadily.