Chicago’s projected expenses for police-related settlements and judgments are expected to surge sharply in 2027, with the city forecasting a $401 million expenditure that could strain its finances ahead of the next budget cycle. This figure, cited by Mayor Brandon Johnson as a significant challenge, marks a substantial increase from the $135 million anticipated for 2026 and represents a major factor in the city’s current $882 million budget deficit.

The rise appears tied to a pending “global settlement” involving dozens of lawsuits against former Chicago Police Detective Reynaldo Guevara. Guevara, who retired about a decade ago, faces numerous accusations of police misconduct, including tampering with witness lineups, intimidating witnesses, and coercing confessions through physical abuse. These allegations have led to dozens of wrongful conviction cases, many involving mostly Latino men wrongfully imprisoned for murder.

Federal court filings from U.S. District Judge LaShonda Hunt indicate that the city and plaintiffs have reached a tentative global deal, pending City Council approval, which could significantly reduce future litigation costs. Courts in several Guevara lawsuits have canceled upcoming case hearings, signaling that the disputes may be resolved without trials. While the exact settlement amount remains undisclosed, observers estimate the total could easily run into the hundreds of millions, which aligns with Johnson’s increased settlement forecast.

Mayor Johnson has emphasized the long-standing nature of these liabilities, many of which originated before his administration took office. He described the costs as “quite severe” but has restrained from providing a detailed breakdown. His administration has pledged “the absolute maximum level of transparency” in resolving these legal obligations, many of which stem from police practices tied to decades-old murder investigations.

The anticipated $401 million allocation marks a $266 million jump from the prior year’s estimated spending on police settlements. Historically, the city’s Police Department-related legal expenses have been a consistent burden, typically funded through a combination of operating budgets and debt issuance. Previous settlements, including a $90 million global deal linked to former Sgt. Ronald Watts last year, have sparked criticism from city council members and credit analysts concerned about the sustainability of borrowing for such liabilities.

Several aldermen expressed cautious support for the principle of funding settlements through operating funds rather than debt, stressing the need for fiscal transparency and accountability. Ald. Bill Conway, vice chair of the Finance Committee, said the Law Department must clarify how the $401 million figure was determined but agreed that the city should budget adequately for these ongoing legal costs. Ald. Pat Dowell, chair of the Finance Committee, called for prompt resolution of pending cases to avoid escalating expenses, while Ald. Matt Martin warned the large sum underscores the urgency of fully implementing reforms outlined in the federal consent decree overseeing the Chicago Police Department.

Despite the mounting costs, some officials remain skeptical about the size of the projected settlement budget. Ald. Daniel La Spata raised concerns about the lack of detail behind the increase, describing the forecast as a “black box” that warrants more scrutiny. Civic Federation President Joe Ferguson noted that the mayor’s promise of transparency will be critical to assessing whether the figure is justified or merely a placeholder.

The Guevara cases have already cost Chicago nearly $150 million in settlements and verdicts, including more than $29 million approved this year and additional millions pending council votes. By comparison, previous scandals involving the “midnight crew” of former Cmdr. Jon Burge resulted in costs exceeding $210 million. A global settlement resolving the Guevara lawsuits would become the most expensive police misconduct case in the city’s history.

While settlement expenses specific to Guevara have increased, overall spending on police settlements and judgments, excluding special cases like those involving Ronald Watts, has decreased by 13% in the past year, according to Law Department data. Through August 2026, aldermen approved approximately $106 million in major police-related settlements, contributing to a total of $220.7 million spent on all settlements and verdicts for this year, revealing a continuing, substantial financial impact on city resources.