The ongoing conflict in Iran is causing significant challenges for African airlines, as rising jet fuel prices and supply disruptions compel carriers to reassess their operations. The African Airlines Association (AFRAA) warns that the crisis has exposed the continent’s reliance on imported refined jet fuel, making airlines particularly vulnerable to global market shocks.

Prior to the outbreak of war in February, African carriers were already paying approximately 17 percent more for jet fuel compared to the worldwide average. The conflict has further driven up prices, squeezing margins in a sector already operating with limited financial flexibility. According to AFRAA Secretary-General Abderahmane Berthe, fuel costs make up between 30 and 40 percent of airline operating expenses, meaning any increase significantly impacts their financial health.

A critical factor exacerbating the situation is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, a vital global energy corridor that previously accounted for nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and fuel shipments. This disruption has tightened supply channels and elevated procurement costs for African carriers, many of which lack the capacity to absorb such shocks effectively.

In response to escalating fuel expenses, some airlines have introduced surcharges, but the majority are unable to transfer the full burden to passengers without risking a drop in demand. Supply instability has also raised concerns at key aviation hubs such as Nairobi and Addis Ababa, where reliable jet fuel availability is essential for maintaining regional and international connectivity.

The impact on operations has prompted carriers to make adjustments, including route reviews, frequency reductions, and other network modifications aimed at managing costs amid ongoing uncertainty. Despite these difficulties, demand for air travel within Africa remains robust. AFRAA projects passenger numbers will grow by about 6 percent annually, a rate exceeding many other global markets.

However, Berthe cautioned that prolonged fuel price volatility and supply constraints could negatively affect airline profitability and the broader stability of Africa’s aviation network. The situation underscores the continent’s vulnerability to external shocks and highlights the need for more resilient fuel supply strategies moving forward.