Gulf Arab leaders are expressing growing doubts about the reliability of the United States as their primary security partner, following recent interactions and unfolding regional developments. During a meeting with President Donald Trump at the United Nations in New York last week, several Gulf leaders sought reassurance amid escalating tensions with Iran but were reportedly met with vague responses and renewed threats of military action against Tehran.
The gathering, described by an informed source as a brief “meet and greet,” offered little substantive discussion on critical regional security challenges, including the risks posed by Iran’s missile capabilities and the ongoing conflict in Yemen. Trump’s remarks included the possibility of “annihilating” Iran, heightening concerns among Gulf states about potential retaliatory strikes on their territories. Despite attempts by some attendees to gauge American intentions, the meeting left many leaders uneasy about Washington’s commitment.
Over decades, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have relied heavily on U.S. military support, receiving extensive weapons supplies and benefiting from a network of American bases intended to deter aggression. However, recent Iranian drone and missile attacks—such as the significant damage to the U.S. naval base in Bahrain and assaults on various regional installations—have exposed vulnerabilities within this framework. The U.S. has also contemplated troop reductions in the Gulf, fueling uncertainty about the future of its military presence.
Strategic adviser Zaid Belbagi noted a regional recalibration, emphasizing that Gulf states are reevaluating their dependence on the United States amid fears that American policy under Trump may prioritize electoral or political considerations over long-term alliances. The depletion and refusal to replenish American interceptor missile stocks further exacerbate this insecurity, leaving smaller states in particular feeling exposed.
According to Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a UAE political science professor, the Emirates remains reliant on advanced U.S. weaponry and intelligence-sharing but is actively diversifying its defense partnerships. Recent acquisitions of French fighter jets and South Korean missile defense systems reflect a strategic pivot toward broader military procurement. While Abdulla maintained that the UAE values its alliance with Washington regardless of current doubts, he acknowledged differing priorities between the Gulf and the United States.
Other Gulf states are experiencing similar reassessments. Qatar, despite significant financial investments and diplomatic overtures—including pledges exceeding $1 trillion in U.S. investments and gifts to the Trump family—has seen limited reciprocal protection. An executive order by Trump equating attacks on Qatari soil with attacks on the U.S. did not prevent Iranian strikes on critical Qatari infrastructure earlier this year.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has also encountered challenges securing unequivocal U.S. backing, particularly in the Yemen conflict against Houthi militants, who are supported by Iran. Reports indicate that despite repeated requests from Riyadh, U.S. officials have instead engaged with Houthi representatives, seeking assurances to limit attacks on Saudi vessels in the Red Sea. Former U.S. ambassador Michael Ratney characterized Saudi frustration as understandable but noted that Riyadh is preparing for continuity beyond Trump by cultivating additional defense partnerships with countries like Pakistan and Turkey, while continuing major arms purchases from the United States, including $24 billion worth of F-35 jets.
Amid these shifting dynamics, the Gulf states remain divided over how to approach Iran, especially regarding direct dialogue. A planned meeting between GCC and Iranian officials in Oman to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz was postponed as longstanding disputes resurfaced, with Bahrain boycotting the talks and Tehran blaming Saudi Arabia for the delay. Meanwhile, the UAE has initiated its own separate engagement with Iran, a move viewed with suspicion by some neighboring states given Abu Dhabi’s independent actions, such as secret oil shipments through the strait, its departure from OPEC, and normalization of ties with Israel.
Abdulla suggested that the UAE’s approach might pave the way for a broader regional realignment, describing it as a “division of labor” whereby states pursue different strategies that could benefit the collective in the long run. While the Gulf has historically depended on American protection, the recent erosion of that guarantee is prompting its members to explore new security calculations in an increasingly complex and uncertain regional landscape.