Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have surpassed pre-war levels despite a spike in attacks on shipping vessels, according to recent maritime tracking data and industry analysis. Last week, daily oil flows through the region averaged more than 24 million barrels, exceeding the pre-conflict benchmark of 23.3 million barrels, with approximately 14 million barrels transiting daily through the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. This amounts to about 82 percent of the pre-war volume passing specifically through the strait.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, has seen a significant rise in attacks on vessels, with around 30 incidents reported in October alone, marking the most violent month since March. These attacks, frequently attributed to Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reflect Tehran’s efforts to reassert control over the shipping lanes and deter movements perceived to undermine its claims to the strait. Methods employed by Iran include missile and drone strikes and guerrilla tactics similar to those used by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, involving small boat ambushes and the deployment of spotters along key maritime routes.

Despite the increased threat level, shipping companies and crews continue to navigate the hazardous waters, motivated by high oil prices and substantial financial incentives. Benchmark Brent crude has risen to around $108 a barrel, and traders can earn premiums of up to $20 per barrel on cargoes transiting the Gulf, significantly offsetting the elevated risk and operational costs. Crew members working on these voyages receive bonuses up to two or three times their normal salary, with some offers reported at $25,000 per round trip. Additionally, some shipping firms have brought older vessels back into service to capitalize on the lucrative freight rates, which are approaching record highs—exceeding $37 per barrel for routes to markets like China.

An improvised shipping system supported by US naval protection has been established to facilitate these flows. Tankers often operate with their tracking signals switched off while loading crude oil inside the Gulf, transferring cargo offshore near Oman to other vessels bound for distant markets. The US Navy provides aerial cover along certain corridors, enhancing security despite ongoing hostilities. One supertanker, the Tanzania-flagged Loyalty, was recently struck by a rocket-propelled grenade but sustained only minor damage, illustrating the persistent dangers faced in the region.

Alternative pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also playing an increasingly important role in sustaining exports, with about 40 percent of non-Iranian Gulf crude now bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, up from 17 percent before the conflict. These developments have somewhat diminished Iran’s leverage, although the country continues to threaten disruption and remains under a US-led maritime blockade that restricts its own oil exports.

Analysts caution that while the current volume of oil shipments indicates a strong adaptation to wartime challenges, the situation remains precarious. The high costs associated with insurance and freight are ultimately passed on to consumers, and any escalation in conflict or disruption could quickly reduce flows amid thinning global inventories. The coming weeks, particularly with potential political shifts in the United States, may influence the broader dynamics governing this vital energy corridor.