Oil production from Opec’s largest Middle Eastern members increased in September as more tankers transported crude through the Strait of Hormuz, although a recent surge in attacks on shipping has raised concerns about the sustainability of this recovery. Saudi Arabia, the cartel’s top producer, reported output of 8.4 million barrels per day for September, marking its highest level since before the escalation of hostilities involving the United States and Israel against Iran at the end of February.

The rise in Saudi production was largely attributed to an expanded use of shuttle tanker services. These operations involve smaller vessels carrying oil through the Strait of Hormuz to larger tankers waiting off the coasts of the United Arab Emirates or Oman for further transport. This strategy helped compensate for reduced exports from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, which experienced disruptions following an attack on a pipeline supplying the facility on September 10.

Iraq, Opec’s second-largest producer, also increased its crude shipments via similar shuttle services, enabling it to raise production above prewar levels in the same period. The combined efforts of these producers contributed to a rebound in overall Gulf oil output in September.

However, analysts have cautioned that a notable uptick in attacks targeting maritime traffic in the region could jeopardize this recovery. The UK Maritime Trade Operations, which tracks such incidents, reported 19 hostile events near the Strait of Hormuz in October, up from 16 incidents in September. These attacks have reportedly deterred some shipping companies from routing vessels through the strait or engaging with shuttle tankers in the Gulf of Oman, impacting logistical operations.

The increasing insecurity in one of the world’s most critical oil transit corridors underscores ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region. While producers have adapted to supply challenges by using alternative shipping methods, continued maritime disturbances pose risks to the flow of oil exports and, by extension, to global energy markets.