Leaders from Gulf states are pursuing a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran amid ongoing tensions in the region, but progress largely hinges on the stance of U.S. President Donald Trump.
The developments unfolded as Trump met with Middle Eastern leaders at the United Nations General Assembly in late September, a day after sharply warning of potential annihilation of Iran, while also leaving open the possibility of a deal. Simultaneously, senior Trump aides Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff engaged in indirect discussions with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, focusing on a proposal Iran presented on September 16 outlining seven conditions for resuming negotiations. These conditions, according to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary-general of Iran’s Supreme National Defense Council, include an end to the U.S. blockade, assurances against attacks, and lifting economic sanctions.
Iranian officials expressed a cautious openness to diplomacy. Revolutionary Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebi emphasized that Iran’s approach will depend on safeguarding national interests, whether through conflict, negotiation, or a combination of both. Likewise, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf criticized factions against dialogue, stating that rejecting negotiations risks prolonged conflict without a clear path to resolution.
Meanwhile, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are advocating for a direct regional dialogue with Iran, rather than relying solely on talks mediated by the United States. At an event in New York, Dr. Anwar Gargash, senior advisor to the UAE president, stressed the importance of a "new mindset," urging Arab states to engage Iran directly on issues ranging from security arrangements and Iran’s regional proxies to navigation rights through the Strait of Hormuz.
Efforts toward dialogue have taken several forms. In May, reports emerged that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states were exploring a nonbelligerency agreement with Iran. On September 12, Emirati Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed held discussions with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian focusing on transit through the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional cooperation. A subsequent planned meeting in Salalah, Oman, between Iranian and Gulf foreign ministers to discuss a draft transit agreement was postponed following objections from Bahrain—citing opposition to negotiations amid Iranian attacks—and concerns linked to Houthi assaults on Saudi Arabia.
Qatar also publicly signaled support for regional security talks including Iran, with Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani calling for a Gulf security framework that integrates Tehran.
Despite these initiatives, the Gulf states face significant limitations. They are unable to fulfill Iran’s core demands, such as lifting the U.S. blockade and sanctions or offering guarantees against future attacks, all of which require U.S. approval and involvement. The Gulf countries acknowledge their reliance on the American security umbrella and lack direct leverage over Iran comparable to that which the United States holds.
Consequently, the Gulf initiative appears designed to lay the groundwork for a potential deal by framing a joint regional proposal for U.S. consideration, effectively placing Trump’s administration at the center of any breakthrough. This dual dependency poses challenges: while Gulf states seek to emerge as independent strategic actors, their diplomatic efforts remain contingent on winning American support and accommodating Iran’s conditions.
As the next phase of regional diplomacy unfolds, the interplay among the Gulf states, Tehran, and Washington will remain critical to any substantive progress in reducing tensions and achieving lasting stability in the Middle East.