Dubai’s strategic port of Jebel Ali, a cornerstone of the emirate’s transformation into a global commercial hub, is facing significant operational challenges amid the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. The disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for Gulf shipping, has caused a steep decline in container volumes and exposed vulnerabilities in Dubai’s long-standing economic model.

Jebel Ali, established under the vision of Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum in the 1970s and 1980s, has played a central role in expanding Dubai’s trade beyond oil dependence. The development of the Jebel Ali Free Zone in 1985, allowing companies to import, manufacture, and re-export goods under a special customs regime, helped create a diversified economy and positioned Dubai as a major logistics and trading center. The port and free-trade zone currently account for over 20 percent of Dubai’s GDP, with the port alone generating approximately 30 percent of DP World’s revenues last year. DP World, majority-owned by Dubai’s ruling family through Dubai World, operates Jebel Ali and holds a major role in the emirate’s economic infrastructure.

Before the conflict, the port handled about 40,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) daily across its four container terminals. However, since the outbreak of hostilities, container traffic at Jebel Ali has dropped by more than 90 percent, and despite a ceasefire extension in June that eased some maritime passages, vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely constrained. According to shipbroker Clarksons, daily traffic averages at 17 ships, compared with roughly 135 prior to the war. The recent resumption of fighting threatens to further curtail shipping flows.

DP World has pointed to growth at other terminals within its global network of 60 ports, reporting annual container volume increases of 7-8 percent outside Jebel Ali. Still, the crisis at the emirate’s flagship port has accelerated efforts to develop alternative logistics routes less dependent on the Strait of Hormuz. The company is advancing plans for two new port terminals in Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman coast. These facilities, projected to be operational in about two years, would provide roughly half of Jebel Ali’s general cargo capacity. However, Fujairah remains within range of Iranian missile strikes and has already experienced attacks during the conflict.

Other regional logistics operators are also expanding capacities beyond the strait. Sharjah-based Gulftainer aims to increase throughput at Khor Fakkan with a $2 billion investment, while French shipping company CMA CGM announced plans to inject $400 million into Oman’s Sohar port. Despite these initiatives, experts caution that replicating Jebel Ali’s integrated ecosystem of maritime facilities, transport infrastructure, and surrounding businesses will be challenging. The port’s unique role as a combined sea-air freight hub, bolstered by Emirates airline, has made it a highly efficient gateway between global markets and the Middle East.

Industry analysts have long recognized the vulnerability posed by reliance on maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz but say efforts to diversify have been limited until recently. While ports outside the Gulf have spare capacity, many are located far from Dubai and lack adequate connectivity. For example, Oman’s Salalah port can handle an additional 3 million TEU per year but is about 1,200 kilometers away via largely undeveloped desert roads without rail links.

The disruption at Jebel Ali transcends DP World’s setbacks and strikes at the heart of Dubai’s broader economic strategy of trade-driven growth and diversification. Observers suggest the ongoing conflict represents a critical juncture for the emirate and the United Arab Emirates as a whole. Political and economic considerations may also moderate the conflict’s impact on maritime access, as Iran maintains significant trade ties with Dubai. However, the war has underscored the extent to which Dubai’s economic identity depends on the uninterrupted operation of Jebel Ali.

Experts emphasize that Dubai’s development as a regional and global trade hub would not have been possible without the port’s rise. Continued instability poses an existential risk to that status and raises pressing questions about the future of Gulf trade networks.