This Halloween, consumers may find fewer chocolate treats in their trick-or-treat bags despite a recent decline in cocoa prices from the record highs seen in 2024. Industry experts attribute this trend to sustained elevated retail prices, which largely reflect the costs manufacturers incurred when purchasing cocoa up to a year ago.
David Branch, sector manager at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, explained that while the cocoa market is beginning to stabilize following significant price surges driven by weather disruptions in Western Africa, ongoing risks have prevented prices from falling back to traditional levels. Because much Halloween candy on store shelves was produced with cocoa bought during the peak price period, consumers are expected to receive less chocolate for their money this season. Branch noted that shoppers are likely to gravitate toward value packs, promotional offers, and alternative treats, and some households may reduce their overall chocolate candy purchases compared to previous years.
Despite these challenges, Halloween spending remains robust. The National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates consumer expenditures on Halloween-related activities will reach $13.5 billion in 2026, up modestly from $13.1 billion last year. According to Allison Zeller, NRF’s Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights, Halloween continues to be a spending priority, but affordability is increasingly influencing purchasing decisions. The organization’s survey showed that 74% of consumers plan to celebrate Halloween this year, consistent with last year’s participation rate and notably higher than the 68% reported in 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Consumers are also adopting more cost-conscious behaviors, with nearly one-third indicating they will comparison shop and about a quarter planning to use coupons or seek sales for their Halloween purchases. Average planned spending per person remains steady at approximately $115.
A separate survey by professional services firm PwC reported that 86% of respondents intend to celebrate Halloween, up from 78% a year earlier. This figure rises to 94% among Generation Z consumers. PwC’s data project average spending of $263 per person nationwide, down from $289 in 2025, although millennials plan to spend more, averaging $368. The survey also highlighted the growing impact of social media and technology, with 43% of Gen Z participants citing social platforms as an influence on their celebration plans and nearly half of artificial intelligence users turning to AI for costume ideas.
Health considerations are increasingly shaping Halloween behaviors as well. Approximately one-third of respondents said they are moderating candy or treat consumption to meet weight, blood sugar, or metabolic health goals, while 29% reported plans to reduce alcohol intake during events. Additionally, 25% indicated a preference for distributing lower-sugar, allergen-friendly, or otherwise health-conscious treats to trick-or-treaters.
Despite these shifts, chocolate remains the favored Halloween treat for many participants. PwC found that 75% of celebrants prefer chocolate candy, compared with 46% who favor gummy candies. As retail prices remain high, the combination of economic and health factors may lead to smaller candy hauls, though celebrations are expected to continue at levels consistent with recent years.
