Sales of Halloween candy in the United States have declined amid rising living costs and inflationary pressures, even as the peak selling period approaches. According to market research firm NielsenIQ, candy sales fell by 6.7 percent in the month ending October 17 compared with the same period last year. This follows an earlier 11.7 percent drop in mid-September that erased the preseason gains seen in the prior two years.

Chris Costagli, vice president and food trend expert at NielsenIQ, attributed the weaker demand largely to increased expenses across essential categories such as fuel, housing, and food. The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline reached $4.29 as of October 20, nearly 40 percent higher than last year. Costagli noted that many consumers are not necessarily reacting to higher candy prices alone but are constrained by stretched budgets: “Some of the decisions they’re making about Halloween candy… it’s not because I notice it’s more expensive, it’s I can’t afford it this year.”

While overall candy sales fell, smaller-sized candy bags showed some growth through mid-October, in contrast to notable declines for larger and extra-large packages. Candy prices, particularly chocolate products, have risen faster than the general inflation rate over recent years. Government data indicate a 44 percent price increase for candy and gum over the last five years, compared with a 22.5 percent rise in food prices overall.

The surge in cocoa prices is a significant factor behind rising chocolate costs. Cocoa reached a record high of $10,710 per metric ton in January, driven by poor weather in West Africa—the source of 70 percent of the world’s cocoa—and speculative trading in futures markets. Though prices fell substantially to $3,241 per metric ton in March, they have started to climb again due to disruptions from the Iran conflict affecting fertilizer supplies and anticipated adverse effects from the El Niño weather pattern.

Costagli added that lower prices for some non-chocolate candies, such as gummies and lollipops, have not translated into increased sales. For example, the average price for non-chocolate Halloween candy was $6.08 per pound in the nine weeks ending October 17, about 3 percent lower than last year, yet demand remained soft.

Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president at Circana, a market research company, suggested shoppers are adapting to higher grocery costs by making smaller, more frequent purchases and buying items closer to when they will be used. This could mean that many consumers are postponing candy purchases until nearer Halloween.

“People are very intentional and thoughtful about what they want to consume,” Lyons Wyatt said, indicating that while candy sales may remain weak, Halloween purchases are not necessarily off track.

Meanwhile, the National Confectioners Association, representing major candy manufacturers such as Mars, Smarties Candy Co., and Ferrara Candy Co., expressed optimism about the Halloween season. In a statement released Friday, the group said consumer enthusiasm remains strong as the market enters the peak sales period.