James Ashby, longtime chief of staff to Pauline Hanson and recently appointed national director of One Nation, has indicated he is considering a bid for the federal seat of Capricornia at the next election. His potential candidacy comes amid mounting speculation that Hanson, One Nation’s leader, will seek re-election to the Senate rather than contest a lower house seat.

Capricornia, a central Queensland electorate, has drawn attention as a possible target for One Nation following the announcement that the Nationals’ leader, Matt Canavan, is expected to seek preselection for the seat. Canavan aims to replace the retiring Michelle Landry, whose tenure has been marked by tense interactions with One Nation representatives.

Ashby confirmed he has been encouraged by One Nation supporters to run in Capricornia, where he resides, but has yet to make a definitive decision. “There has been plenty of people who have called for me to do it, but I haven’t given anyone a firm yes or no,” he said. Ashby, who previously contested the state seat of Keppel in 2024 and finished third with 25 percent of the primary vote, expressed confidence about facing Canavan, noting they maintain a cordial relationship.

“The best man for the job will be decided by the people,” Ashby remarked. “Matt’s a decent bloke and I have got nothing bad to say about him.” However, Ashby questioned whether Canavan could effectively campaign across the extensive Capricornia electorate while serving as Nationals leader, suggesting the dual responsibilities could pose challenges.

One Nation sources have largely dismissed the notion that Hanson might seek a seat in the House of Representatives. While some speculation has suggested Capricornia as a strategic option to boost the party’s credibility as a government contender, insiders maintain Hanson is likely to run for the Senate again. The party argues there is no constitutional requirement for a prime minister to hold a lower house seat, but concede that a bid for a lower house seat would invite significant opposition efforts and entail substantial risk.

Hanson’s political standing is rising, with One Nation’s national primary vote increasing sharply from 6 percent after the 2025 election to 28 percent in the latest Newspoll. The party secured 15.5 percent of the vote in Capricornia at the last federal election and has expanded its presence in the area, including the establishment of a second office in Yeppoon, one of the seat’s key towns.

Meanwhile, Landry, who announced her retirement ahead of the upcoming election, reflected on her experiences dealing with One Nation during her time in Parliament. She described their approach as occasionally confrontational and expressed skepticism about candidates relocating to run for local seats. “When I look at people that move into an area to run for a political position, it doesn’t usually end well,” she said.

As both major contenders prepare for a potentially high-profile contest in Capricornia, the seat is shaping up to be a significant battleground in the forthcoming federal election.