Jan Nolte, defence policy chief of Germany’s hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, has dismissed concerns about an imminent conflict between Russia and NATO as exaggerated, underscoring a significant divergence from the predominant stance of most NATO members. Speaking at the AfD conference in Erfurt, Nolte characterized warnings from German, British, and Polish officials about a potential Russian attack between 2029 and a possible broader conflict as “silly” and “a clear exaggeration.”
The AfD, which is projected to make substantial gains in upcoming state elections this September, has consistently opposed military support for Ukraine and firmly rejects Kyiv’s accession to NATO or the European Union. The party advocates for renewed dialogue and de-escalation with Moscow, favoring a return to normalised trade relations following a ceasefire in the ongoing Ukraine conflict. AfD officials also express interest in resuming imports of relatively low-cost Russian gas.
While the AfD’s growing influence has raised alarm among NATO members adjacent to Russia, with some accusing the party of acting as a Kremlin proxy, Nolte rejects such allegations. He asserts that the AfD has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and insists on a complete withdrawal of Russian troops. He describes Russia not as a direct enemy but as a problematic neighbour posing espionage challenges. According to Nolte, Russian intelligence operations, including espionage and sabotage, are active within Germany due to the country’s support for Ukraine.
Nolte, a former chief petty officer in the Bundeswehr, praised Donald Trump’s emphasis on dialogue with Russia, crediting it for enabling the AfD to more openly advocate similar approaches within Germany. “Russia is not going to just disappear one day,” Nolte said. “If we want lasting peace in Europe, we have to talk to Russia.”
Tensions remain high following recent intelligence reports, reportedly shared among Poland, its government, and NATO allies, suggesting Moscow might provoke armed incidents in Poland to test the alliance’s resolve. Poland’s government has reacted with sober readiness, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk acknowledging awareness and preparation for the threat.
The German federal government has reportedly considered withholding sensitive intelligence from the AfD should the party enter regional government, citing concerns over potential leaks to Russia, a charge Nolte denies.
Despite its divergent Russia policy, the AfD aligns with broader Western positions on Israel, Iran, and German military capability. Nolte critiqued years of underinvestment in the Bundeswehr but cautioned against excessive defence spending without fiscal prudence. On Iran, Nolte condemned the regime’s support for Islamist movements in Europe and cited involvement in attacks on Israeli targets.
In a notable shift, Nolte expressed growing openness to reconsidering Germany’s nuclear weapons stance—traditionally a taboo subject—acknowledging the deterrent value of nuclear arms. While not endorsing an immediate change, he described nuclear capabilities as a possible long-term strategic advantage despite the political and economic challenges involved.
As the AfD’s popularity threatens to eclipse Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats, its distinct position on Russia and defence policy continues to draw scrutiny both within Germany and among its NATO partners.