Haskel expresses unease about extending economic forecasts to ten years

By the Editorial Team · Thursday, July 16, 2026

Jonathan Haskel, the proposed chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, expressed concerns about extending the government's economic forecasts from five to ten years due to increased uncertainty and resource demands. His caution highlights the challenges of long-term forecasting amid ongoing debates on improving the assessment of fiscal policy’s lasting effects.

Jonathan Haskel, the proposed chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), has expressed reservations about extending the government’s economic forecasts from five to ten years. Speaking at his confirmation hearing before the Commons Treasury select committee, Haskel described the shift to a decade-long projection as inherently uncertain and difficult to predict accurately.

“The trouble with moving to a ten-year forecast is that you are inevitably going to have to make some straight-line assumptions. I’m a little uneasy about doing that,” Haskel said, highlighting the challenges of relying on longer-term economic models. He also indicated that lengthening the forecast horizon would likely require additional staff and resources at the OBR to manage the complexity involved.

In written evidence submitted to MPs, Haskel noted that forecasts extended over such a long period are “subject to more shocks” and depend on a greater number of assumptions, which could affect their reliability. Despite these concerns, proponents of the change argue that a ten-year outlook would enable the OBR to better evaluate the long-term impacts of government policies, particularly investments aimed at boosting growth and productivity.

Louise Haigh, a close ally of Labour mayor Andy Burnham and a potential senior cabinet appointee, has advocated for extending the OBR’s forecasting horizon to ten years. Haigh contends that a longer timeframe would allow the body to capture the sustained benefits of government investment more effectively.

The discussion around extending the economic forecast period reflects broader debates about how best to assess the long-term consequences of fiscal policy. While the current five-year window is seen as more manageable and precise, supporters of a ten-year horizon argue it provides a clearer picture of strategic economic planning. Haskel’s caution indicates a careful approach to potential changes, emphasizing the need for enhanced capacity and recognition of the uncertainties inherent in long-range economic forecasting.

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