John Mearsheimer, a prominent political scientist at the University of Chicago, has characterized the United States’ ongoing conflict with Iran as a decisive failure. The campaign, initiated under the administration of former President Donald Trump, aimed at rapid regime change but has instead resulted in a protracted and unresolved conflict.
The hostilities began on February 28, 2026, with coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel, referred to by Washington as “Operation Epic Fury.” The plan was based on the expectation that the assaults would trigger a swift popular uprising against Iran’s government. However, this anticipated response did not materialize. The strikes persisted for 39 days, concluding with a ceasefire on April 8, but the hoped-for regime change or significant internal unrest failed to occur.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Iranian citizens to rise up during a Persian festival, but the response was minimal. Despite Netanyahu's calls, former President Trump declined to support public appeals for unrest, reportedly telling Netanyahu there was little point in urging protests that would be quickly suppressed. The ceasefire lasted until July 8, when hostilities resumed and have continued since without leading to Iran’s collapse.
Mearsheimer argues that despite substantial casualties and infrastructural damage in Iran, the country remains strategically stronger. “Iran still has its missiles, nuclear capabilities and regional proxies,” he said, emphasizing that Iran has successfully resisted efforts at regime change. He described the expectation that air strikes alone could topple a government as unrealistic, noting that any student of military history would have anticipated the failure.
President Trump has rejected this assessment, maintaining that an uprising was close and suggesting the conflict might end shortly after the upcoming November midterm elections. In September, Trump declined a seven-day ceasefire proposed by Iran that would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz, signaling an intent to continue military pressure unless Iran complied with U.S. demands. He has made contradictory statements, at times suggesting peace was achieved through the campaign, while also remaining pessimistic about the prospects for a lasting agreement with Tehran.
The campaign has provoked criticism from a range of voices. Representative Thomas Massie, a Republican from Kentucky, has condemned the war as unconstitutional, noting that Congress never authorized the military actions. He has also alleged that the Pentagon misrepresented U.S. casualty figures by framing the conflict as two separate wars divided by a ceasefire. Massie warns the operation risks radicalizing new terrorist groups and has introduced articles of impeachment against the defense secretary over the matter.
Separately, commentator Tucker Carlson, once an ally of Trump, severed his support early in the conflict, calling it “Israel’s war” and accusing Trump of subordinating American interests to those of Netanyahu. By April, Carlson expressed regret for endorsing the campaign.
Economic repercussions have been significant. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global growth projection for 2026 to 3.1%, with inflation expected to rise to 4.7%, attributing these trends in part to disruptions in oil and gas markets caused by the war. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva described the energy shock as currently contained but cautioned that high energy prices could persist even after the conflict ends. The World Bank forecast that Gulf Cooperation Council economies could contract by an average of 4.3% this year, a steep revision from earlier estimates.
Regional tensions remain high. Iran-aligned Houthi forces have launched attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and transport routes, causing explosions in Riyadh. Mearsheimer warned that continued U.S. involvement could draw additional regional actors, including Gulf states, Jordan, and Israel, deeper into the conflict.
With no clear resolution in sight, the potential for renewed U.S. military action after the November elections looms. The existing campaign has failed to deliver its goals, leaving Iran intact and the region economically and politically strained. Analysts from different perspectives agree that the conflict represents a strategic defeat for Washington and caution that further escalation risks expanding an already intractable war. The outcome will have lasting implications not only for the Middle East but also for how this chapter is remembered in the history of American foreign interventions.