Satellite imagery indicates that the turbines of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) have been inactive for two weeks, with the reservoir level remaining steady at approximately 47 billion cubic meters, according to Abbs Sharaki, a professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University. Sharaki highlighted that the current situation mirrors conditions from the same period last year, when calls were made in late April 2025 to gradually lower the reservoir before the Blue Nile’s flooding season, which typically runs from July to mid-September.

Sharaki explained that the Blue Nile’s rainy season begins on May 1, and stressed that the reservoir should ideally contain about 20 billion cubic meters to support electricity generation through turbine operation instead of nearing full capacity at 47 billion cubic meters. He warned that the flooding season could add over 43 billion cubic meters of water, potentially more if rainfall exceeds average levels as forecasted. Disabled or poorly managed turbines could exacerbate the risks of flooding downstream, as occurred in late September last year when Ethiopia released excess water—over 750 million cubic meters per day—by opening four gates of the dam’s upper spillway.

Emphasizing the need for coordinated management, Sharaki called for effective collaboration between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt to prevent floods in Sudan, damage to agriculture and property, and water wastage seen in previous years.

In Egypt, water resources officials have increased efforts to prepare for variable hydrological scenarios. Earlier this month, Hani Sewilam, Egypt’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, visited the Toshka Spillway, a critical facility designed to support Egypt’s water management and protect the Aswan High Dam and Lake Nasser. The spillway was used last year to manage excess water released from the GERD, which Cairo described as a “man-made flood” resulting from “hasty and uncoordinated filling” of the reservoir. Egyptian authorities have pursued additional water security initiatives, including desalination projects, wastewater treatment expansions, and canal lining.

Simultaneously, Egypt has sought to strengthen its strategic position in the Horn of Africa. According to a diplomatic source, Egypt has reached agreements to upgrade the Red Sea ports of Assab in Eritrea and Doraleh in Djibouti, solidifying its security presence in the region near the Bab Al-Mandab Strait—a vital maritime passage. This move is viewed as exerting pressure on landlocked Ethiopia, which relies heavily on the port of Doraleh for imports and maintains a firm stance in GERD negotiations.

Egypt has elevated the GERD dispute from a bilateral issue to a regional concern involving water security and stability. Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty recently called for renewed inclusivity within the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), a regional framework established in 1999 to foster cooperative water management among the Nile countries. During Abdelatty’s meeting with Tanzanian counterpart Mahmoud Thabet Kombo, he underscored the importance of a collective approach.

President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi characterized the GERD as an “existential threat” to Egypt in discussions with a senior U.S. advisor last month, stressing Cairo’s firm stance on safeguarding its water interests. Abdelatty has consistently advocated for adherence to international law in managing shared water resources and condemned unilateral actions, a clear reference to Ethiopia’s independent management of the dam.

Sudan, while focused on its internal civil conflict, has aligned with Egypt in opposing Ethiopia’s unilateral approach. During a Cairo meeting earlier this year, Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouli and Sudan’s Transitional Prime Minister Karim Idris pledged coordinated efforts to protect their shared water security, emphasizing the indivisibility of their water rights as afforded under the 1959 Nile water agreement and international law. Both officials urged Ethiopia to abandon unilateral actions and engage in a trilateral agreement to harmonize the GERD’s filling and operation.

Ethiopia, however, maintains that the dam’s operation is an internal matter and insists no harm will come to downstream countries, despite over a decade of stalled negotiations. The continued impasse leaves the future management and impact of the GERD uncertain, heightening concerns across the Nile Basin.