For much of the past year and a half, Mohsen Abu Zainab, a carpenter and ardent supporter of Hizbollah, felt disheartened by the group’s restraint amid frequent Israeli attacks. However, when hostilities resumed on March 2, he perceived a shift in momentum, describing it as an opportunity for Hizbollah to reaffirm its stance against Israeli aggression. Despite losing his home, ancestral village, and several relatives to Israeli bombardment, Abu Zainab said he now believes Hizbollah is "back on top," reflecting a broader surge in morale among the group’s supporters.

This change follows an interim agreement between the United States and Iran, which included an Iranian-imposed ceasefire in Lebanon as part of the broader deal, despite objections from Washington, Beirut, and the Israeli government. Iran’s direct intervention in Lebanon, marked by ballistic missile launches at Israel in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Beirut, represented a rare and significant show of support for Hizbollah, underscoring Tehran’s prioritization of the conflict in the region.

Nearly two years after enduring its most severe confrontation with Israel and the killing of its veteran leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah has emerged from the latest clashes with renewed confidence. Analysts and diplomats note that the group’s battlefield performance and Iran’s reinvigorated backing have contributed to this renewed self-assurance. The relationship between Hizbollah and Iran, particularly with the involvement of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, has deepened, shifting previous dynamics where Hizbollah often supported Iranian interests. Experts observe that this marks the first time Iran has actively aided Hizbollah militarily in response to Israeli actions.

During a 15-month lull in hostilities following the 2024 Israel-Hizbollah war, which severely depleted Hizbollah’s ranks, the group refrained from retaliation despite frequent Israeli attacks. However, after re-engaging militarily in March, Hizbollah surprised many Israeli military officials with its continued use of advanced tactics, including drones modeled on Ukrainian designs, which have proven effective at bypassing Israeli defenses. Sporadic rocket fire against Israel has also resumed, signaling a refusal to return to previous restraint.

The US-Iran deal’s call for a full ceasefire undermines Lebanon’s government-led efforts, supported by the international community, to disarm Hizbollah and negotiate a separate peace with Israel. Hizbollah has openly opposed these negotiations, describing them as "treason," and sees Tehran’s enhanced role as assurance of the movement’s continued military autonomy. Additionally, Hizbollah supporters have been encouraged by recent remarks from former US President Donald Trump, who indicated he had communicated with the group through intermediaries—a diplomatic interaction unprecedented given Hizbollah’s designation as a terrorist organization by the US.

The relationship between Hizbollah and Lebanon’s government remains strained, though the group’s officials deny seeking to overthrow the current administration. Since the US-Iran agreement, Israel has reduced but not ceased airstrikes, with Hizbollah responding in kind. Observers close to Hizbollah suggest that the true test of the ceasefire’s durability lies in whether Israel halts its operations.

The conflict's humanitarian toll has been severe, with nearly 4,000 deaths, approximately 1 million displaced, and numerous villages destroyed—disproportionately affecting Lebanon’s Shia population. The suffering has deepened internal divisions within Lebanon, with some communities blaming Hizbollah for initiating an unwanted war. Nonetheless, the group continues to maintain strong support within its base, leveraging sectarian fears to justify its role as protector.

As Abu Zainab put it, “They have made us proud again. This war is not over and we still need them to fight.”