Hong Kong developers operating in the Greater Bay Area are adjusting to significant shifts in the mainland property market resulting from an ongoing debt crisis that has reshaped buyer demographics and motivations, according to industry experts.

Prior to the current downturn, buyers from Hong Kong accounted for approximately 90 percent of residential property purchases by Hong Kong developers in the region. However, this trend has evolved. Henry Chung, senior managing director at Midland Realty, noted that mainland buyers with genuine housing demands now dominate most markets, except in border areas adjacent to Hong Kong such as Hengqin in Zhuhai and Mianan Island in Zhongshan, where Hong Kong buyers remain a key customer base.

Data from Midland Realty shows that Hong Kong purchasers make up between 40 and 60 percent of transactions in Hengqin and Shizimen, areas where developers like Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land, and Wharf Holdings have ongoing projects. By contrast, in mainland urban centers inland—such as Guangzhou’s Tianhe and Huangpu districts and Foshan’s Nanhai district—Hong Kong buyers represent only 8 to 15 percent of transactions, with local mainland residents accounting for most acquisitions for owner occupation.

The shift reflects a broader realignment away from reliance on Hong Kong investors, with local buyers increasingly driving the market in most parts of the Greater Bay Area. Emerald Cove, a residential development in Huizhou’s Daya Bay Economic Development Zone by Hutchison Property Group (a CK Asset Holdings subsidiary), illustrates this dynamic. Since launching sales in the third quarter of 2024, the project has sold over 800 units, with more than half purchased by Hong Kong buyers.

Some Hong Kong buyers describe their purchases as motivated by lifestyle and family considerations rather than pure investment. One buyer, surnamed Lee, acquired two adjoining units totaling approximately 1.05 million yuan (HK$1.21 million), citing the convenience of using the property as a vacation home when visiting family. Another buyer, Lam, purchased an 850-square-foot unit for around 650,000 yuan, intending the property for his son as the young family prepares to settle in the mainland, allowing Lam to relocate and free up their Hong Kong home.

Tony Yu, chief district sales director at Midland Realty, explained that Hong Kong buyers tend to favor projects by Hong Kong developers due to greater transparency and familiarity, especially in light of the collapse of several mainland real estate companies in recent years, which has eroded buyer confidence. “Hong Kong developers are relatively transparent regarding their financial results and corporate backgrounds,” Yu said, emphasizing the accountability aspect.

David Hui, sales director at Centraline Property, noted a fundamental change in purchase intent among Hong Kong buyers. Whereas investors dominated prior to the market’s peak, 70 to 80 percent of Hong Kong buyers now are end users who conduct thorough property searches, often comparing multiple cities. Properties priced below 1 million yuan have become particularly attractive to this demographic.

Despite efforts by Hong Kong developers to capitalize on mainland buyer interest and broaden their presence, their share of the Greater Bay Area property market remains limited. King Lau, regional investment director at Yui Yin Property in Zhuhai, highlighted that only 26 out of 217 new residential projects launched in the bay area during the first half of 2026 were developed by Hong Kong firms, underscoring the competitive landscape in which they operate.