As the United States and Australia mark the 75th anniversary of the ANZUS alliance, a leading American Asia policy expert has underscored the critical role of the U.S. alliance system in balancing China’s growing influence. Kurt Campbell, a former top U.S. official involved in shaping Asia policy under Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, emphasized that only through coordinated efforts among U.S. allies can China’s power be effectively countered.

Campbell, who played a central role in the development of the AUKUS security partnership, recently cautioned that former President Donald Trump’s unpredictable approach to alliances has caused significant damage, particularly through actions such as threatening to purchase Greenland, withdrawing troops from Germany, imposing tariffs on allied nations, and expressing favoritism toward Beijing and Moscow. However, Campbell remains confident that these alliances will endure and ultimately strengthen, arguing that such pessimism risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Contrary to views that U.S. alliances are maintained primarily by shared values or institutional trust, Campbell contends that they have historically been grounded in “hard material realities,” such as overlapping security interests and the concrete threats posed by adversaries. He points out that these threats have not diminished but grown more acute with the increasingly aligned attitudes of allies toward China and Russia.

Campbell highlights the interconnected nature of economic, technological, and military ties among allies, which continue to reinforce their cohesion. The expansion of China’s support for Russia’s military capabilities, a fact now explicitly acknowledged by NATO, exemplifies the convergence of challenges facing the alliance network.

The expert outlined four potential global geopolitical frameworks in the event of a breakdown in the U.S. alliance system, all of which he describes as detrimental to middle powers like Australia. These include an anarchic multipolar world prone to conflict, rival spheres of influence leading to constant competition, a great-power concert deemed unlikely between the U.S. and China, and partial Chinese dominance that could economically and militarily marginalize the U.S. and its partners.

Campbell advocates for a renewed and strengthened U.S.-led alliance system as the only viable path to effectively balancing Chinese power. While he acknowledges that significant progress may need to await the post-Trump administration, he notes that cooperative efforts among allies continue despite current political challenges in Washington.

The 75th anniversary of ANZUS offers an occasion to reaffirm the importance of the Australia-U.S. security partnership. The treaty, initiated by Australian foreign minister Percy Spender in 1951 and crafted during the government of Robert Menzies, remains the foundation of Australia’s national security and identity. Campbell’s analysis suggests that, if sustained, the alliance could continue to underpin regional stability and shared interests for decades to come.