Data from 30 American cities shows an 18% decrease in the homicide rate in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, amounting to approximately 215 fewer homicides, according to a report released Thursday by the independent Council on Criminal Justice. If this trend continues through the end of the year, it would mark the lowest annual homicide rate in the United States in more than a century.
The council’s report tracked 13 categories of crimes and found declines in nine, including carjackings, residential burglaries, aggravated assaults, and arson. Residential burglaries, in particular, saw a 13% drop compared with the previous year and are down 50% from pre-pandemic levels in 2019. There was also a significant 23% decrease in the lethality of violent crimes, measured by the share of serious violent incidents that were fatal. However, certain offenses, such as shoplifting, domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults, and drug offenses, experienced small increases over the same period. Notably, drug offenses remain below pre-pandemic levels despite the uptick.
The data reveal that while most cities experienced overall reductions in violence, a subset defied the national pattern. Roughly one-third of the sampled cities reported increases in homicides between 2025 and 2026. Norfolk, Virginia, had a 64% increase in homicides, and San Francisco recorded a 55% rise. Over a longer timeline, only Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis saw more homicides in 2026 compared to 2019.
Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, highlighted that the decline in murder and crime rates has occurred across cities with diverse political leadership, economic conditions, policing strategies, and varying levels of federal enforcement. This suggests that broad national factors may be driving the improvements rather than localized policies. Gelb described the reduction as one of the most significant public safety developments in decades, noting its impact on saving lives and promoting community stability.
Experts offer different perspectives on the underlying causes of the crime declines. John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, emphasized that explanations likely transcend political affiliations or specific government actions. Conservative voices often credit intensified immigration enforcement and National Guard deployments in some cities, while liberal viewpoints highlight federal public safety legislation aimed at strengthening firearm background checks. Roman suggested that reduced drug use, which lowers demand in illegal markets linked to violence, and substantial federal funding after the pandemic—often used for social programs and employment for high-risk youth—have contributed to the downward trend in crime.
As local and national leaders from both parties have acknowledged the positive data amid a competitive midterm election season, analysts caution that multiple, intersecting factors appear to influence crime rates. Continued study of these trends may offer important insights for future public safety policies.