In California’s November 3 gubernatorial election, Republican candidate Steve Hilton faces an uphill battle against Democratic opponent Xavier Becerra, who is widely favored to win the race. Hilton, a former Fox News host originally from the United Kingdom and endorsed by former President Donald Trump, is seeking to become the first Republican to win a statewide election in California in two decades.
Hilton and his supporters acknowledge the significant challenges ahead. Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two-to-one in the state, and independent voters tend to lean Democratic in statewide contests. Established polls, including those conducted by reputable organizations such as the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the Public Policy Institute of California, have consistently shown Hilton trailing Becerra by more than 20 percentage points. Internal polls from Hilton’s campaign reflect similar but narrower margins.
Despite these statistics, Hilton remains hopeful, citing enthusiasm among attendees at his campaign events. He reported encountering lifelong Democrats who, though reluctant to openly express their support, say they are voting for him in favor of political balance and change. “A lot of them say, ‘But I’m not telling anyone,’” Hilton said, reflecting the cautious stance of some voters in a heavily Democratic state.
Hilton and other Republicans are campaigning on addressing ongoing issues such as California's high cost of living, homelessness, and public safety concerns. Hilton promises to make the state a place where residents can pursue their dreams and encourages policies that would attract people back to California. Supporters like Summer Behan, a former Democrat who has experienced rising crime and insurance costs, express a desire for change and hope Hilton can provide a new direction.
However, political analysts and GOP operatives express skepticism about the possibility of a Republican victory. Jon Fleischman, a conservative writer and former California GOP executive director, expressed doubts about statewide Republican success, while predicting that Democratic voter turnout could be bolstered by opposition to Trump. Although Trump’s endorsement provides Hilton with national recognition, his approval rating in California is low, complicating the campaign’s messaging.
Some Republicans are also contending with limited choices in key local races, such as the Los Angeles mayoral runoff dominated by two Democrats and the insurance commissioner contest between two Democratic candidates. This has led to frustration within GOP ranks concerning the lack of competitive options on the ballot.
Hilton has also addressed, with caution, allegations of election fraud circulating in California. While voicing concerns about election rules like ballot harvesting and extended mail-in ballot deadlines, he rejects claims of systemic cheating, emphasizing the importance of winning through votes rather than complaints.
As the midterm election approaches, Republicans in California remain motivated by the desire for political change, despite the demographic and historical challenges. Many acknowledge the difficult path ahead but continue to court independent and disenchanted Democratic voters who are dissatisfied with current state conditions and leadership. The election outcome is expected to reinforce the Democratic hold on California, but Hilton’s campaign efforts underscore ongoing debates about the state’s political and social future.