Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff and leading challenger to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is facing diminishing prospects of unseating the veteran leader ahead of Israel’s parliamentary election scheduled for October 27. Once holding a clear lead in the polls during the summer, Eisenkot’s advantage has significantly narrowed as the campaign enters its final stages.

Eisenkot, 66, a career military officer from a working-class background, has emphasized his experience, competence, and public service record throughout his campaign, rather than stark policy differences with Netanyahu. His profile was bolstered by personal tragedy in 2023, when his son Gal was killed while serving with the IDF in Gaza. This loss has given Eisenkot a resonance on issues of national security and trauma that some analysts suggest Netanyahu has struggled to match, notably as none of Netanyahu’s sons have served in reserve duty during the conflict.

At a recent rally in Kiryat Gat, a southern Israeli town traditionally supportive of Netanyahu’s Likud Party, Eisenkot maintained a measured and orderly approach, projecting discipline reminiscent of his military background rather than attempting to energize the crowd with charisma. His strategy has largely revolved around presenting a centrist platform designed to appeal across the political spectrum, seeking to unify disparate anti-Netanyahu factions. However, this approach has struggled in the face of Netanyahu’s more polarizing and emotional campaign messaging.

Netanyahu has campaigned vigorously on a narrative framing the election as a choice between security and existential threats, posing a stark dichotomy between a Jewish state and a Palestinian state. His Likud Party has employed advanced campaign tactics, including artificial intelligence-generated videos suggesting Eisenkot’s potential alliances with Arab-Israeli politicians, a sensitive subject for some right-wing voters.

Eisenkot’s initial polling advantage also benefited from early consolidation within the fragmented field of candidates. But as several contenders withdrew or repositioned themselves, the election “stabilized,” and Eisenkot’s lead dissipated. Recent polls place him around 25 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while Likud holds approximately 31 seats, indicating Netanyahu remains on firmer footing.

Political analysts highlight that security concerns remain the paramount issue for many voters, particularly in light of recent hostilities. Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York, said that should fighting continue, Netanyahu is likely to maintain a slight edge due to his firm security credentials and solid base. Eisenkot’s campaign has begun to shift toward articulating a positive vision for Israel’s future, moving beyond a simple “anyone but Bibi” platform, but faces an uphill battle in convincing undecided voters.

Among Eisenkot’s supporters are many who previously backed Benny Gantz, another former IDF chief of staff and one-time leading anti-Netanyahu candidate. However, Gantz’s political fortunes have waned, leaving Eisenkot as the principal challenger. The challenge for Eisenkot lies in bridging Israel’s deep social and political divisions at a time when the electorate appears increasingly polarized and security-focused, with no clear pathway to assembling a governing coalition capable of supplanting Netanyahu, who has dominated Israeli politics for much of the past decade.