The International Energy Agency (IEA) has highlighted growing risks to global oil supplies amid rising tensions in the Middle East, despite continued exports from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia helping to maintain crude oil market stability. The agency’s concerns center on recent escalations around the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global energy shipments.

In a statement released Tuesday, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasized that the intensified hostilities affecting the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy infrastructure have heightened uncertainty over energy market security and outlook. He also noted that threats to the Bab Al Mandeb Strait, an alternative route increasingly used for Gulf exports, add to these supply concerns.

Although the Gulf region remains a critical source of crude oil, the IEA pointed out that exports through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped sharply—from approximately 10 million barrels per day in early July to an estimated 1.5 million barrels per day. This decline is attributed to recent military actions, including attacks on oil tankers and significant fires aboard vessels in the waterway. At the same time, some cargoes continue to move through the strait, while alternative export routes are being utilized.

The agency acknowledged that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have played a key role in offsetting disruptions by channeling exports through alternative pathways that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, increases in crude shipments from countries including the United States, Brazil, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan have helped mitigate some of the supply shortfall from the Gulf.

On the demand side, the IEA reported a notable reduction in Chinese crude oil imports, which have fallen by nearly 50 percent compared to pre-conflict levels, easing pressure on global markets.

Reflecting the importance of diversifying export routes, the UAE has announced plans to drastically reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade Dr. Thani Bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi revealed that the country is pursuing a strategy to bring dependence on the strait to zero for its oil exports. Efforts are underway to develop a new export corridor expected to be operational by the end of the year. Discussions are also ongoing about a third route connecting the UAE with the Iraqi port city of Basra and extending toward Turkey and Syria, with investments in the Turkey-Basra corridor set to accelerate in the near future.

The IEA further pointed to the significant role of coordinated emergency oil stock releases among its member countries. Since a major June announcement to release 400 million barrels, approximately 290 million barrels have been injected into the market, providing an important buffer against supply shocks. These member nations still maintain over one billion barrels of government-controlled reserves.

Despite relative resilience in crude supply, Birol cautioned against complacency, noting that refinery output and fuel production have not fully recovered, leading to tighter markets for refined petroleum products such as diesel and gasoline. Natural gas markets also remain strained; while liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the U.S. and Canada have replaced roughly 70 percent of gas lost due to disruptions in the Gulf, delays in restoring Gulf-based LNG flows could prolong market tightness.

Birol stressed that a peaceful resolution to the conflict, including a “full and unconditional reopening” of the Strait of Hormuz, is critical to prevent further deterioration in global energy security. The current disruptions mark the most severe in years for this vital maritime corridor, reinforcing the fragility of global energy supplies in the face of geopolitical tensions.