The ongoing disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has now exceeded 100 days, yet sovereign credit ratings across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) remain stable, according to S&P Global Ratings. The agency attributed the resilience of these ratings to elevated oil prices, the availability of alternative export routes, and significant liquid asset reserves held by GCC states.

S&P projects that the disruptions, caused by regional geopolitical tensions, will ease in the latter half of 2026, although periodic interruptions are still possible. The recovery in energy flows is expected to be more gradual and incomplete than initially forecast. The credit rating agency warned that prolonged disruptions could gradually erode financial buffers and tighten financing conditions, potentially broadening the adverse credit impact.

Reflecting these dynamics, S&P raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2026 to $110 per barrel, up from earlier estimates. The revision accounts for what the agency described as a structurally severe and sustained supply disruption, combined with rapidly diminishing inventory stocks and slow global energy market recovery.

Qatar’s sovereign credit profile remains intact, with S&P affirming its long- and short-term foreign and local currency ratings at AA/A-1+ and maintaining a stable outlook. The agency highlighted Qatar’s substantial fiscal strength and external asset base, bolstered by the Qatar Investment Authority, as key factors enabling the country to absorb near-term economic pressures. However, Qatar’s economy is projected to contract by roughly 5% in 2026 due to LNG output at Ras Laffan Industrial City operating about 40% below pre-conflict levels following production suspension after attacks in March.

Given that over 90% of Qatar’s exports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the impact has been significant. S&P anticipates a gradual resumption of LNG production in the second half of the year, supported by projects such as the Golden Pass LNG terminal in the United States and Qatar’s North Field expansion, which are expected to mitigate supply shortfalls starting in 2027. The agency forecasts Qatar’s real GDP growth will rebound to an average of 4.8% annually from 2027 to 2029 as these additional gas production capacities come online.

Regional banking sectors have shown notable resilience amid the turmoil. S&P noted that even a hypothetical 20% stress scenario involving domestic funding outflows would remain manageable for Gulf banks, thanks to solid liquidity reserves and expected central bank and government support. In contrast, corporate issuers have experienced more pronounced credit pressures, driven by a weakened business climate and subdued growth prospects.

S&P has observed that negative rating actions within the GCC have so far been largely limited to specific sectors and entities, such as Dubai’s real estate and hospitality industries and projects directly impacted by military activity. For 2027, the agency lowered its Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel, expecting supply constraints to ease as maritime disruptions recede. Nonetheless, S&P cautioned that the duration and scale of the ongoing conflict remain uncertain, leaving commodity prices, supply chains, and credit conditions vulnerable to further volatility.