The flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually increasing as major Middle Eastern producers work to boost exports despite ongoing security concerns following recent Iranian attacks on shipping in the region. Current estimates from oil traders indicate that between 6 million and 8 million barrels per day are passing through the strategic waterway, roughly half of prewar levels.

Oil shipments through the strait declined in July after Iran resumed attacks on supertankers, which disrupted a previously established interim ceasefire and heightened risks for navigation. Despite the volatile security environment, some observers and U.S. officials have reported even higher volumes. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that 24 vessels crossed the strait overnight, although he did not specify the types of ships involved. Concurrently, a U.K. naval group has noted continued attacks in recent days.

One factor supporting the uptick in shipments is the record-high earnings in the supertanker market, incentivizing shipowners to transport crude through increasingly risky waters. To mitigate risk, many tanker operators are using shuttle services, ferrying oil to points just outside the Persian Gulf where other vessels then take over for the long-haul journey. All major regional producers, except Iran, are now selling oil for pickup outside the strait.

Georgios Sakellariou, a freight analyst at Signal, noted that oil volumes leaving Hormuz have risen in recent days. He said that if the trend is sustained, it could keep crude prices subdued, though prices remain near $85 per barrel. Brent crude futures traded near $88 per barrel on Thursday, marking the largest weekly drop since late June, partly due to renewed diplomatic efforts to stabilize the region and maintain shipping lanes.

Satellite imagery revealed that Saudi Arabia had the highest number of tankers at its export terminals in weeks, while Iraq briefly exceeded prewar loading rates. Qatar and Kuwait, smaller producers in the area, have also increased their exports and have returned to approximately 70% of pre-conflict shipment levels. However, the overall oil export picture for Saudi Arabia is complex, as increased shipments through the Persian Gulf coincide with reductions at its Red Sea facilities, offset by more loadings from its storage at Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir.

While shipments increase, it is not always clear if all crude loaded near Hormuz have reached final customers, as cargoes must be transferred to waiting vessels at ports such as Sohar in Oman or Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. Tracking these movements is complicated by restrictions on satellite imagery and reliance on vessel Automatic Identification System data.

Iran’s oil exports remain halted under a U.S.-imposed blockade reinstated after the ceasefire ended. Meanwhile, regional refining capacity has been constrained, with about 1.6 million barrels per day of fuel production offline, complicating efforts to boost shipments of refined products like diesel and jet fuel. Unlike the crude shipping sector, dominated by a major South Korean company organizing flows, the refined fuels market requires a more fragmented network of smaller vessels to manage distribution.

Despite the challenges, the increased flow of crude through Hormuz highlights the region’s efforts to adapt to geopolitical tensions and maintain global oil supplies, helping to temper price volatility.