The planned reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased concerns about a prolonged disruption in global energy supplies and the risk of a severe economic downturn. However, the global economy still faces lingering challenges as the effects of the crisis continue to unfold.

Shipping through the strategic waterway cannot immediately return to normal. Navigational hazards such as mines remain, requiring clearance before vessels can transit freely. Additionally, oil fields and refineries that either reduced output or suffered damage during the conflict will need time to resume full production capacity. Further uncertainty surrounds ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program and other unresolved issues, which could affect future stability in the region.

“Reopening is undeniably a positive thing, but it doesn’t mean that the global economy avoids the costs of what’s already happened,” said Simon MacAdam, global economist at Capital Economics. He emphasized that the economic consequences of the closure will persist despite resumed access.

The Hormuz crisis reflects broader shifts in the global economic landscape, marked by increased geopolitical tensions and a retreat from prior levels of trade cooperation. Countries are placing greater emphasis on economic security and leveraging their market power for political purposes. This shift is prompting governments to rebuild depleted stockpiles and invest more heavily in domestic energy production and storage infrastructure to prepare for future shocks.

“The world economy isn’t what it used to be,” said Stefan Angrick, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in Tokyo. “It’s more fractured now. You can’t count on globalisation keeping prices low.”

One of the most immediate and visible impacts of the crisis has been persistent inflationary pressures. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, had anticipated lowering interest rates this year, but the surge in energy costs altered these plans. The European Central Bank (ECB) has already raised rates, and while the Federal Reserve held rates steady recently under new chairman Kevin Warsh, officials signaled potential hikes ahead.

Oil prices have eased following the peace agreement, with Brent crude futures trading near $78 per barrel as of Thursday, down from a peak above $118 in March at the height of the conflict. Petrol prices have likewise decreased, offering some relief to consumers.

Nonetheless, the broader economic impact of elevated energy prices is expected to continue to unfold over the coming months. Higher costs are gradually filtering through to other sectors such as food and electricity, where price changes typically lag behind energy market movements. Agricultural prices can take up to a year to fully reflect increased costs due to advance commodity pricing and complex supply chains. Electricity bills also adjust slowly because many markets operate under regulated prices or long-term contracts.

“There’s going to be indirect effects on food, on goods, on services this year and into next year,” said Philip Lane, chief economist of the ECB.

Despite the energy shock, the global economy demonstrated resilience, supported in part by rising exports and investments related to artificial intelligence and technology sectors. The World Bank recently revised its global growth forecast slightly lower to 2.5 percent this year from a pre-conflict estimate of 2.6 percent, signaling modest but sustained growth even as inflation continues to dampen consumer spending.