Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply to just four commodity vessels per day amid escalating attacks in the region and Iran’s firm refusal to reengage in negotiations with the United States. The decline marks a significant tightening of activity in a key maritime chokepoint that handles roughly 120 vessels daily under normal conditions.
Data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler on Monday showed the strait was transited by two dry-bulk carriers—one loaded and one in ballast—and two empty oil tankers entering the waterway. These numbers represent a stark reduction from the previous day's 10 vessel transits and are well below typical pre-conflict traffic. The data excludes vessels that might have deactivated their tracking transponders.
The disruption has fueled concerns about global energy supplies, driving oil prices higher. On Tuesday, Brent crude rose over 2 percent to $108.18 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed to $103.85. The instability is also affecting consumers, with average diesel prices in the United States surging to a record $6.27 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). This compares to $3.76 per gallon at the onset of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
Despite these developments, President Donald Trump maintained that oil continues to flow through the strait. In a post on Truth Social, Trump emphasized that countries benefiting from American efforts to keep the waterway open "should, and will, reimburse the United States." Nevertheless, current shipping figures suggest the flow remains significantly constrained.
The escalation in maritime hostilities was underscored by fresh attacks reported on Monday. Two fishing boats near Iran’s Larak Island in the Arabian Gulf were struck by drones, resulting in several crew members missing, according to Ahmad Nafisi, deputy governor of Iran’s Hormozgan province. The attack occurred approximately 12 miles from Larak Island and 30 miles from Kargan port; search-and-rescue operations have been launched.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Central Command accused Iran of attacking the Panama-flagged tanker EL GAIA for a second time, adding to the growing list of incidents exacerbating tensions in the vital waterway.
Amid the rising volatility, Tehran rejected renewed talks with Washington. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, dismissed recent signals from President Trump that the U.S. was open to negotiations, calling them "mixed messages." Rezaei stated on X that "no talks" would take place until Iran’s demands were met, underscoring the heightened stakes surrounding oil exports and control of the straits.
The comments came shortly after President Trump indicated openness to dialogue, reversing his earlier stance that seemed premature for any agreement. However, with attacks intensifying and maritime traffic significantly restricted, the prospects for a swift diplomatic resolution remain uncertain.
