The 2026 El Nino event is already affecting Southeast Asia with intensified heat, dry conditions, wildfires in Indonesia, and widespread haze, with experts warning that the worst impacts have yet to come. According to the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO), this El Nino is expected to persist well into 2027, likely peaking in December 2026 before gradually subsiding as ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific cool.
Scientists caution that this event is unfolding against the backdrop of the warmest global temperatures in at least 25,000 years, which could amplify its effects. Ben Horton, dean of the School of Energy and Environment at the City University of Hong Kong, said the risks from this El Nino exceed past episodes due to unprecedented ocean conditions fueling the phenomenon. The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported record-high sea surface temperatures of 27 degrees Celsius in the eastern Pacific in September 2026.
The impacts of El Nino are complex and uneven, with droughts worse in some areas, such as Indonesia and eastern Australia, and increased rainfall or floods in others, including parts of South America. Historically, strong El Nino phases have triggered severe droughts, contributed to devastating fires, and reduced rice production across Southeast Asia. This year’s event threatens to set new regional heat records and test the capacity of governments and businesses to adapt to extreme weather patterns.
Long-term consequences are expected to emerge through early 2027, particularly between February and May, when water shortages, crop failures, and elevated prices for food, fuel, and fertilizer could strain vulnerable populations. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) highlights that the convergence of rainfall disruptions, temperature spikes, and agricultural cycles poses significant risks to livelihoods, particularly in rural and lower-income communities.
Heat-related health issues are also a growing concern, especially for young children, the elderly, outdoor laborers, and those without reliable access to cooling. The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) estimates that approximately 190 million children in Asia and the Pacific could be at increased risk from extreme weather conditions through the end of 2026. Additionally, a report by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab projects over 450,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide in the next six months, including nearly 40,000 in Southeast Asia.
Agricultural production faces notable setbacks with rice yields expected to decline by around 10 percent in 2027, while palm oil output may fall between 2 and 8 percent. In the Philippines, rice production losses could reach up to 700,000 tonnes. These disruptions extend to energy and manufacturing sectors; prolonged drought could reduce hydropower generation and strain water supplies critical for industries such as chip manufacturing and data centers.
Countries in the region are encouraged to enhance early warning systems and undertake preventative measures. Singapore’s Meteorological Service projects that 2027 could be among the hottest years on record, following a pattern seen in previous El Nino years. Malaysian temperatures may approach 40 degrees Celsius in early 2027. Officials have introduced stronger heat safety protocols, including cooling programs for outdoor workers.
Experts emphasize the need for coordinated regional action to better manage food stocks, support farmers, increase water storage, and improve healthcare infrastructure to cope with heat stress. Enhanced regional cooperation, such as utilizing ASEAN’s rice reserves proactively and improving energy grid integration, could bolster resilience against El Nino-induced hardships.
“El Nino is one of the few major climate hazards that can be anticipated months in advance,” Horton said. “Governments cannot prevent it, but they can be held accountable for whether they acted on the warning.” While ASEAN has proven effective in disaster response, analysts stress the importance of shifting focus to preparedness and mitigation to reduce the human and economic toll of this evolving climate challenge.