The recent advances by Yemen’s Houthi rebels have escalated tensions in the Middle East by granting Iran-backed forces control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime chokepoint at the entrance to the Red Sea. This development compounds the region’s ongoing instability and raises concerns over global energy security, particularly regarding oil shipments and fuel supplies.
Over the weekend, Houthi forces, aligned with Iran, successfully seized effective control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which sees between 5 and 12 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade pass through daily. Although this volume is lower than the 20 to 25 percent that transits the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandeb’s strategic importance has grown as the Strait of Hormuz remains a contested and often restricted waterway due to previous conflicts involving Iran.
Saudi Arabia responded to the heightened threat by shutting down its 1,200-kilometer east-west pipeline, which had served as an alternative route for approximately seven million barrels of oil a day to reach international markets without passing through Hormuz. This closure came after repeated Houthi missile and drone attacks targeted energy and military infrastructure in southern Saudi Arabia. Additionally, Tehran-backed militia forces launched an attack on the pipeline itself, intensifying the pressure on Saudi Arabia’s energy export capabilities.
The situation prompted Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to seek direct military assistance from then U.S. President Donald Trump, reportedly making three calls that were ultimately declined. President Trump conveyed that the United States expected regional partners to take the lead in addressing these security challenges. The decision reflects both the sensitivity of ongoing U.S. political dynamics ahead of midterm elections and widespread domestic opposition to deeper U.S. involvement in the Middle East conflict.
The Houthi takeover of Bab al-Mandeb and the continued disruption of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have positioned Iran’s proxies as dominant forces controlling two of the most critical maritime routes for the global oil supply. This dual control raises significant risks for energy markets worldwide.
For countries like Australia, heavily reliant on steady diesel and fuel supplies to support economic activity, the impact of rising global oil prices is becoming increasingly tangible. The Albanese government is reportedly considering reinstating cuts on the fuel excise to mitigate domestic fuel costs, a move that carries fiscal risks amid inflationary pressures and the likelihood of higher interest rates.
Regional analysts note that Saudi Arabia’s inability to prevent the Houthi advance casts doubts on its military effectiveness as the principal Sunni power countering Iran’s influence. The situation underscores the urgent need for Arab nations to coordinate and strengthen their response to Iran’s expanding regional proxy network to preserve both regional stability and global energy security.
Motorists and consumers worldwide should anticipate further fuel price increases as the instability in these crucial waterways continues to restrict oil exports and disrupt supply chains in the months ahead.