Houthi rebels in Yemen are reportedly preparing to extend their influence to the Horn of Africa with plans to seize control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a strategic maritime passageway critical to global trade. Sources in Yemen reveal that the group, widely regarded as Iran’s most effective regional proxy, is coordinating with the Somali militant organization Al-Shabab to potentially control both sides of the strait. Such control would allow them to disrupt shipping routes and increase pressure on the United States.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is a vital chokepoint for commerce, with approximately 10 to 12 percent of the world’s annual maritime trade passing through it en route to and from the Suez Canal. The significance of the strait’s closure was underscored earlier this year when Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz following a U.S. and Israeli strike on February 28, causing global prices of oil, fertilizer, and other goods to surge.

According to sources, the Houthis are now transferring drone technology to Al-Shabab, enhancing the latter’s operational capabilities and signaling deeper tactical collaboration between the two groups. This technological sharing could enable expanded militant reach independent of direct Iranian command, providing Tehran with plausible deniability. However, the Houthis maintain autonomy, making their actions only partly aligned with Iranian objectives.

Iran’s strategic doctrine, published by agencies affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, identifies Bab el-Mandeb as a potential secondary front in the event of a broader conflict, intended to be shut alongside the Strait of Hormuz. The goal is to disrupt the financing and logistics of Iran’s adversaries and to choke critical global trade routes.

While the Houthis’ ambitions broadly align with Iran’s, their interests do not perfectly coincide. Controlling Bab el-Mandeb would also enable the Yemeni group to directly target Saudi Arabia, their longstanding adversary, and assert regional influence.

Tensions in the region remain high. On July 24, Saudi-led coalition forces struck the runway at Sana’a International Airport, controlled by the Houthis, to prevent an Iranian airliner from landing. The strike was claimed by Yemen’s internationally recognized government, backed by Riyadh, although the government has no active air force, and a Houthi spokesperson accused Saudi Arabia of direct responsibility. In retaliation, the Houthis launched missile strikes on southern Saudi Arabia, effectively ending a ceasefire that had been mostly intact since March 2022.

The renewed hostilities and attempts to control Bab el-Mandeb occur amid escalating confrontations between the United States and Iran, underscoring the growing complexity and regionalization of conflicts linked to Tehran’s influence in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa.