With the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams, the landscape of major college football’s national championship race is evolving, yet analysts suggest the pool of true contenders remains relatively narrow. Currently, there are 138 teams competing at the highest level, but only a select group is realistically positioned to claim the title, according to projections based on detailed play-by-play data, adjusted for opponent strength, recruiting, and transfer portal activity.
Austin Mock, who developed a College Football Projection model, identifies 14 teams with more than a 1.5 percent chance of winning the championship. These include perennial powerhouses such as Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma, as well as emerging programs like Indiana and Texas Tech. Mock allows that the list could be extended to 16 when including Michigan and Penn State, though he expresses skepticism about teams outside this range pulling off a championship run without exceptional coaching performances.
Sam Khan Jr., who tracks college football rosters, views the field slightly differently. He acknowledges Indiana’s recent championship as evidence that surprises are possible but narrows his list to about seven teams with a realistic chance of winning three or four playoff games. His top contenders—each with modeled odds exceeding 6 percent—include Georgia, Indiana, Miami, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas. His broader list of teams capable of reaching the semifinals expands to roughly a dozen.
Ohio State carries the highest likelihood of capturing the title in both models and currently tops major preseason polls. Despite concerns about quarterback Julian Sayin and the offensive line, Mock notes Ohio State’s high floor and ceiling due to its talent depth and coaching. The arrival of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith could enhance the team’s offensive efficiency. Khan also respects Ohio State’s credentials but emphasizes that programs such as Oregon, Notre Dame, and Texas, with their own star-studded rosters, warrant consideration as favorites. He also argues that Indiana’s reloading success positions them as a legitimate contender to repeat.
Looking beyond these leading programs, Tennessee emerges as a sleeper pick in both analyses. Tennessee’s talent level is promising, but uncertainties at the quarterback position temper expectations. Freshman Faizon Brandon has the potential to exceed forecasts, especially under head coach Josh Heupel’s offensive acumen and new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ improvements. Tennessee’s relatively favorable Southeastern Conference schedule adds to their appeal. Khan also highlights Brigham Young, citing its strong recent record, experienced offense, and promising returning players under coach Kalen Sitake as indicators that the program could challenge for a playoff berth.
When considering teams with at least a 50 percent chance to make the expanded playoff, Mock singles out Texas as the likeliest to miss despite high-profile recruits such as Arch Manning. Texas faces the nation’s toughest schedule, making a 9-3 season the most probable outcome, which could marginalize their playoff chances if losses accumulate. Khan identifies Texas Tech as vulnerable to exclusion, particularly if quarterback Will Hammond suffers injury or if other Big 12 teams claim conference titles. He notes that two-loss teams from the Big 12, including Brigham Young in recent years, have been overlooked in playoff selections, reflecting skepticism about the conference’s strength.
Looking ahead to the national championship, Mock forecasts Ohio State defeating Georgia to secure its second title in three years, citing the combination of talent and coaching on both sides. Khan favors Notre Dame over Oklahoma, attributing the Irish’s potential to offseason offensive upgrades, a strong defensive unit, and a rising quarterback star, C.J. Carr. He believes Notre Dame’s comparatively easier schedule may enable them to return to championship contention for the first time since 1988.
Overall, while the playoff expansion and recent surprises offer hope to more teams, expert analyses underscore that the national championship race remains concentrated among a select group of well-positioned programs with strong rosters and coaching staffs.