Early Monday, Russia launched a large-scale attack involving drones and missiles against Ukraine, resulting in at least 22 fatalities, predominantly in Kyiv where rescue teams recovered bodies from collapsed apartment buildings. While Ukrainian defense forces successfully intercepted most of the drones, none of the 29 ballistic and hypersonic missiles fired in the barrage were intercepted. This contrasts sharply with a similar attack three weeks prior, when Ukraine shot down 15 of 19 ballistic missiles targeting its capital.

The drop in interception effectiveness is largely attributed to Ukraine’s depletion of U.S.-supplied Patriot air defense missiles, which Kyiv has relied on since 2023. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized allied nations, stating that while Patriot missiles remain in their stockpiles, Russia is emboldened to continue targeting civilian infrastructure.

Negotiations aimed at ending the conflict have made some progress, but Russian President Vladimir Putin remains resolute in demanding territorial concessions from Ukraine—territory his forces have been unable to capture militarily. The shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles is seen as an advantage for Russia, complicating Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

The United States’ stockpiles of Patriot missiles have been significantly strained due to ongoing military demands in the conflict with Iran. Although production of these interceptors is increasing, analysts caution that replenishing U.S. reserves will take years. Furthermore, the need to restore American stocks may limit the capacity to provide additional missiles to allies in the near term.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that the United States will no longer fund arms deliveries to Ukraine. However, through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List program established during his administration, allied countries themselves can finance such shipments. The primary barrier to transferring additional Patriot systems to Kyiv appears to be European allies’ reluctance, as those nations fear depleting their own defenses without guaranteed American assistance to replenish their stocks.

Ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, there is potential for a diplomatic effort in which the U.S. would assure allied countries that those who supply Patriots to Ukraine will receive priority in the queue for new missile production. For this assurance to be credible, it would require binding delivery commitments alongside expanded licensing to increase European production capacity, including facilities currently under construction in Germany.

Such arrangements would likely delay the Pentagon’s timeline for restoring its own Patriot inventory, which some estimates place as far out as mid-2028 under current production assumptions. The U.S. military now faces thinner margins due to prior engagements, including the conflict with Iran that heavily consumed air defense resources.

The ongoing difficulty in replenishing air defense supplies underscores the broader challenges of sustaining Ukraine’s defense amid a prolonged war of attrition. Russia’s war effort has slowed on the battlefield, but Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian infrastructure have exacted increasing costs on Russian civilians.

Experts suggest that providing Ukraine with the necessary air defense capabilities could be instrumental in bringing Russia to the negotiating table. Conversely, allowing Moscow to exploit Ukraine’s weakened defenses risks prolonging the conflict and encouraging further military adventurism by Russia and potentially other actors. The coming NATO summit may thus prove critical in shaping the trajectory of support for Ukraine as the war continues.