When Donald Trump returned to the presidency in 2025, his administration placed "energy dominance" at the core of its economic and foreign policy agenda. However, a contentious conflict with Iran and rising fuel costs for American households have turned this focus on energy into a political liability as the United States approaches next month’s midterm elections.
The United States’ position as the world’s largest oil and gas producer played a key role in shaping Trump’s foreign policy and trade strategy during his second term. With abundant domestic energy resources, the administration felt emboldened to pursue a more assertive international stance, leveraging the country’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) production to assert greater geopolitical influence.
Since the advent of cost-effective shale extraction technologies, the United States transformed its energy landscape. By 2009, it became the top global producer of natural gas, and in 2018 it surpassed other nations to lead in petroleum production. As of 2026, U.S. crude oil production stands at nearly 14 million barrels per day, accounting for about 20% of global output. The country also supplies over a quarter of worldwide LNG exports, an unprecedented share positioning it as a dominant player in global energy markets.
Building on this foundation, Trump formally declared a national energy emergency on his first day back in office, aiming to prioritize traditional energy sources such as oil, gas, coal, and nuclear power while reducing focus on renewables. The administration established the National Energy Dominance Council and revived slogans promoting extensive domestic drilling to address inflation and bolster economic growth. Trump encapsulated the approach in October 2025 as a pursuit of “maximum production, maximum prosperity, and maximum power.”
The administration’s concept of energy dominance extended beyond domestic policy to shape its broader national security strategy. The December 2025 strategy document explicitly linked U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere to control over energy resources, invoking the principles of the Monroe Doctrine to dissuade external interference in the region.
Despite these ambitions, the war with Iran uncovered critical vulnerabilities in the energy dominance approach. While controlling production levels increased U.S. leverage abroad, it did not translate into controlling volatile global energy prices. The resulting surge in household fuel costs has eroded public support and posed significant challenges to the administration’s political standing.
As the midterm elections near, the Trump administration faces mounting criticism over its handling of energy policy, illustrating the complex interplay between energy resources, international conflicts, and domestic politics. What began as a strategy aimed at achieving U.S. energy independence evolved into a doctrine emphasizing dominance, a shift increasingly viewed by some analysts as a form of strategic overreach.