As missile strikes continue to target Iran amid the enduring rule of its theocratic government, questions have emerged over the fate of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former Shah, who once appeared poised to lead a political transformation in the country.

Reza Pahlavi, who styles himself as the rightful heir to the Iranian monarchy, was expected by some to return to Tehran, reclaim the Niavaran Palace, rally military support, and spearhead a restoration of Iran’s pre-1979 status. However, nearly two years after his prominence surged amid protests, he has yet to set foot inside Iran, secure military or government defections, or organize a credible succession plan. His relationship with key international actors also appears to have cooled, with some U.S. and Israeli leaders reportedly preferring to maintain the current regime—albeit with more compliant figures—rather than support his return. Currently, Pahlavi continues to engage right-wing audiences abroad, focusing on speeches, broadcasting monarchist messaging, and fundraising.

This turn of events has prompted disillusionment among many Iranians who initially placed hope in Pahlavi. The origins of his rise lie in the widespread protests beginning in 2022, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, which evolved into a powerful feminist and anti-government movement under the slogan “Woman, Life, Freedom.” Public opinion polls suggested over 70 percent of Iranians wanted to see the end of the Islamic Republic. The protests achieved notable gains, including the informal relaxation of dress code enforcement for women.

Over time, the movement’s tone shifted, with monarchist symbols such as the Pahlavi lion-and-sun flag appearing at demonstrations both within Iran and in the diaspora. By late 2025, chants invoking Reza Shah replaced earlier feminist slogans. Diaspora protests, including a large gathering in Toronto attracting approximately 350,000 people, emphasized monarchist themes. A significant national protest on January 8-9, 2026, reportedly resulted in the deaths of as many as 30,000 demonstrators after Pahlavi called for an unarmed uprising.

Reza Pahlavi’s consolidation of influence within the opposition intensified after meetings with protest leaders in Washington in 2023, where he reportedly demanded exclusive leadership, alienating republican-leaning activists. His visits to Israel, including an open meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, further fueled his appeal among some Iranians seeking a path out of the regime’s control.

Experts offer varied assessments of Pahlavi’s trajectory. Yale historian Arash Azizi, author of *What Iranians Want*, characterized Pahlavi as a longstanding but largely marginal figure in Iranian politics who gained prominence due to the regime’s continued failures and the fragmented opposition’s weaknesses. Western-based satellite media expanded his platform, increasing his visibility among Iranians. While some analysts view his rise as partly influenced by foreign operatives in the U.S. and Israel, prior Western and Gulf Arab support for Pahlavi dwindled by the 2010s, with key leaders growing skeptical of his capacity to lead.

Despite past hopes, optimism about a Pahlavi-led transition has faded among most Iranians. Observers note that the regime’s recent brutal crackdowns, including mass casualties, may have peaked following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Nevertheless, the desire for democratic change remains strong. As Dr. Azizi contends, “Neo-monarchism is unlikely to have much of a future,” citing Pahlavi’s perceived ineptitude and the Iranian public’s loss of confidence in his leadership.