Senior Israeli military officials have expressed growing concern over the potential for a large-scale settler attack against Palestinians in the West Bank that could result in mass casualties and spark widespread violence. In private briefings with political leaders, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) commanders have warned that such an incident, similar in severity to the 2015 arson attack that killed three members of the Dawabsheh family, is becoming increasingly plausible.

The IDF cautioned that settlers may resort to arson or live fire during confrontations with Palestinians, raising the risk of severe escalation. One feared scenario involves Palestinians retaliating violently if settlers attack villages in the absence of sufficient security protections from either the IDF or the Palestinian Authority. Military officials have also warned of potential retributive strikes targeting Israeli outposts or settlements.

Reports from the West Bank indicate a rise in the number of settlers participating in violent riots, apparently emboldened by a perceived lack of consequences and, according to military sources, receiving halakhic endorsement from certain rabbis to violate Shabbat laws in order to confront Palestinians. The weekend incident in the village of Qusra was cited as an example of this trend.

At the same time, increased numbers of young Palestinians are mobilizing to defend villages at points of tension. Although currently unarmed, there is apprehension that groups of Palestinians may aggressively confront settlers. The military also fears that an armed attack by a Palestinian terror cell within settlements or outposts could occur amid the rising hostility.

Senior security officials have highlighted a significant operational disconnect between the IDF and the Israel Police in the West Bank. They accuse police commander Maj. Gen. Moshe Pinchi of answering primarily to National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir rather than following instructions from the IDF’s Central Command chief, Maj. Gen. Avi Bluth, thereby weakening coordinated law enforcement. District police declined to comment on these assertions.

The normalization of settler violence is now viewed by the military as a serious security threat, fueled partly by support from influential settler rabbis and a perceived lack of intervention from the Shin Bet security agency. Military sources expressed frustration that lessons from past incidents are not being effectively applied, with many officers reluctant to voice concerns publicly due to fears of political backlash and loss of support.

Internal divisions within the IDF’s senior leadership have also emerged, exacerbated by the approaching national elections and the consequential senior appointments in the defense establishment. Certain officers backed by Defense Minister Israel Katz, Minister Bezalel Smotrich, and the prime minister are accused by some General Staff members of fostering a hardline stance toward Palestinians to maintain political favor until after the elections.

The IDF is facing additional challenges as the Civil Administration, responsible for governance in the West Bank, has recently operated without a permanent head. A compromise appointment of Col. (Res.) Ilan Malka was reached amid political pressure, including a veto by Smotrich of alternative candidates and threats to withhold defense funding if his preferred candidate was not installed.

Military officials acknowledge that the army chief accepted the compromise to avoid prolonged instability during a critical period but remain wary of increasing political interference in West Bank affairs. This concern is heightened by a proposal from Maj. Gen. Yoram Halevi, Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, at Katz’s request, to transfer authority over criminal investigations from the military to the police. The IDF and judicial authorities reject this move, citing legal and operational constraints and cautioning that it may undermine enforcement against illegal outposts and curtail investigations into settler violence.