The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned that the global economy may soon reach the limits of its resilience due to depleting emergency oil stocks and strained government finances. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, released Tuesday in Bangkok during the annual IMF and World Bank meetings, the fund noted that while recent global growth has been stronger than initially expected, ongoing risks remain significant.

Over the past six months, the global economy has withstood pressures linked to the conflict between the United States and Iran, partly due to the rerouting of oil supplies away from the strategically sensitive Strait of Hormuz and the release of strategic energy reserves. The International Energy Agency (IEA) orchestrated the largest emergency oil stock releases in history earlier this year and has pledged to accelerate such measures following a recent meeting of oil ministers.

Despite these efforts, the IMF highlighted that these emergency reserves are now nearly exhausted. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve, for example, has reportedly dropped to its lowest level since 1982. The depletion of these buffers, combined with high levels of debt and budget deficits in many countries, limits governments’ ability to shield consumers from future spikes in energy prices.

“Without shoring up supply capacity and replenishing policy buffers, the global economy could soon test the limits of resilience,” the report stated. It warned that additional geopolitical shocks could rapidly affect prices and disrupt supply chains.

Ahead of the meetings in Bangkok, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged policymakers to adopt fiscal discipline in the face of rising global debt. “We cannot keep delaying necessary policy action—you have the tools, now have the wisdom to use them,” she said.

Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s economic counsellor, emphasized during the report’s launch that while the global economy has demonstrated notable resilience, that resilience is waning. She called for a shift in focus among policymakers “from just coping, to rebuilding.”

Meanwhile, recent geopolitical developments underscore the ongoing challenges in the energy sector. Last week, former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin reached an agreement to temporarily lift sanctions on U.S. imports of Russian diesel in an attempt to ease fuel prices. However, analysts suggested this move would have minimal impact on reducing pump prices.

Despite the concerns, the IMF slightly raised its forecast for global economic growth this year, reflecting the better-than-expected performance amid challenging conditions. Nonetheless, the report conveys a clear message that without renewed policy efforts and strengthened supply capacities, the global economy remains vulnerable to future shocks.