A recent analysis by the Conservative Party suggests that immigration will reduce the average British worker’s annual earnings by approximately £2,500 by 2031. The projection, based on data from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Bank of England, estimates that immigration will result in suppressed wages totaling nearly £90 billion over the next five years.
This development coincides with a resurgence of immigration issues in the political discourse, notably following a significant increase in migrant arrivals in the Spanish territory of Ceuta. Last week, around 60,000 migrants, primarily from Africa, entered Ceuta in the largest recorded one-day influx into the European Union. Separately, the UK recorded 752 migrants crossing the English Channel in a single day on Wednesday—the highest daily figure for this year.
Reform UK’s home affairs spokesman, Zia Yusuf, visited Ceuta and described the migrant surge as “an invasion,” alleging that migrants engaged in looting and caused disturbances. Yusuf claimed some migrants intended to reach Britain, with one admitting to being wanted for murder in their home country. Spain criticized responses from some EU nations as “selfish, polarising and unlawful,” noting that most migrants who arrived on Thursday had returned to Morocco.
The Conservative analysis relies on OBR projections that net migration between 2026 and 2031 will reach about 1.4 million, intensifying job competition and pressuring wage levels. The Bank of England’s research supports this view, finding that a 10 percent increase in the immigrant-to-native worker ratio within a specific occupation and region corresponds to a 0.93 percent reduction in average wages. Consequently, the average annual salary is forecast to decline from £38,220 to £35,699 by 2031.
In response, Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp called for a binding annual cap on immigration and stricter visa regulations. He outlined plans for a Conservative government to impose new conditions on Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) status and extend the waiting period for British citizenship from 12 months to five years post-ILR. Philp criticized the current Labour government for lacking a coherent strategy to manage immigration’s effects on wages and public services.
Philp stated, “High immigration has real consequences across our whole society, and British people feel indirectly in how much they earn.” He added that the Conservatives intend to close loopholes that allow temporary visa holders to remain indefinitely and to enforce tighter ILR requirements. "Sadly, Labour don’t have the backbone to do any of this," he said.
Reform UK’s Yusuf echoed these calls for stronger border enforcement, warning that without tighter controls, similar migrant surges will become increasingly frequent. He stressed that “hard-working British people” suffer the most and urged for policies to detain and deport all illegal migrants.
The immigration debate remains a contentious issue in UK politics, with parties proposing contrasting approaches to managing inflows amid concerns over economic and social impacts.