The upcoming assembly elections in Assam and West Bengal are drawing attention to evolving dynamics surrounding religious polarization and the perceived impartiality of institutions responsible for managing and overseeing the electoral process. These issues are shaping political contests in both states, where Muslim voters represent substantial and electorally significant portions of the population, concentrated in select constituencies capable of influencing electoral outcomes decisively.

In Assam, Muslims constitute roughly 34% of the electorate, while in West Bengal they make up about 27%, according to the 2011 Census. Historically, politics in Assam centered on language and regional identity, whereas in West Bengal, the Left parties emphasized class and redistribution over religious identity. However, shifts over the past two decades have brought religion more prominently into political mobilization. In Assam, the Congress party’s move towards a soft Axomiya nationalist stance facilitated the rise of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), which appeals largely to Muslim voters. In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) intensified its focus on the Muslim electorate, especially as it sought to marginalize the Left, contributing to heightened religious polarization. These trends have coincided with the expansion of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in both states.

The BJP has made notable inroads among Hindu voters—rising from securing just over half of the Hindu vote in Assam in 2016 to approximately 67% in 2021. In contrast, the Congress-AIUDF alliance garnered more than 80% of the Muslim vote in the 2021 Assam polls. In West Bengal, the BJP captured about half of the Hindu votes in 2021, while TMC’s share of the Muslim vote increased from around 50% to 75% during the same period.

Electoral institutions play a key role in maintaining the integrity of elections amid these shifts. Neutrality and fairness in managing the rules and conduct of elections are crucial for public trust and the legitimacy of outcomes. However, recent developments in both states have put this neutrality into question.

In Assam, a delimitation exercise conducted in 2023—intended to adjust constituency boundaries based on updated population data—has sparked debate. Analysts suggest the redrawing has diluted the strength of Muslim-majority constituencies by dividing these populations among multiple seats, potentially diminishing their electoral influence. Meanwhile, areas favoring the BJP appear more consolidated. As India’s first-past-the-post system awards seats to constituency winners, such changes can significantly affect party prospects.

Controversy in West Bengal centers around the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls, which resulted in a sharp decrease in the number of registered voters—from approximately 76.6 million to 67.7 million. Critics argue that the revision disproportionately removed Muslim voters, particularly in constituencies where the community has a significant presence. While some of the voter deletions are attributed to technical reasons such as duplicate entries, opposition parties have accused the BJP-led central government and the Election Commission of India (ECI) of bias, further straining their relationship.

Tensions over electoral management have escalated, with 193 opposition parliamentarians recently moving to impeach the chief election commissioner—a motion that was subsequently dismissed by the Rajya Sabha chairman. Observers warn that disputes over electoral rules and processes risk undermining confidence in democratic practice, potentially normalizing a political environment where the legitimacy of elections is contested.

While there is no evidence that election outcomes are predetermined, the challenges facing electoral institutions underscore the delicate balance needed to sustain democratic norms as Assam and West Bengal prepare for their 2026 assembly elections.