BREWER, Maine — The race for a U.S. House seat in one of New England’s staunchest pro-Trump districts has tightened as Democrats see an opportunity to capture the seat held by retiring Representative Jared Golden.

Former two-term Republican governor Paul LePage, who has positioned himself as a forerunner of the Trump political style, was expected to have a strong advantage in the northern Maine district. However, recent economic pressures, including rising fuel and commodity costs linked to ongoing tariff disputes and international conflicts, have eroded some traditional Republican support. These factors, critics say, stem from policies enacted under the current presidential administration, complicating LePage’s campaign efforts.

Democrats have capitalized on mounting concerns about the cost of living. Their nominee, State Auditor Matt Dunlap, originally a secondary choice within the party, entered the race after Golden’s unexpected retirement and secured the nomination over the preferred candidate in a competitive primary. Dunlap’s campaign has emphasized economic issues, and polling indicates a narrowing margin between him and LePage. Independent analysts now rate the contest as one of the country’s most competitive congressional races.

Both campaigns, along with external groups, have invested heavily in the race, with combined expenditures surpassing $10 million. The Republican side has moved to bolster LePage’s prospects: House Speaker Mike Johnson recently campaigned in the district, describing it as a “top five” priority nationally. While former President Donald Trump has yet to appear in Maine to support LePage, Vice President J.D. Vance has campaigned there twice.

Dunlap, known for a measured and reserved style that contrasts with LePage’s more aggressive approach, addressed perceptions following a recent town hall meeting in Brewer, stating, “it’s easy to underestimate me.” He also pointed to the district’s independent streak and noted that Trump’s historically low approval ratings in the area could work against LePage, despite Trump winning the district by nine points in 2024.

LePage remains the favorite to win but may need to modify his public persona and moderate his endorsements of the president to appeal to voters concerned about recent economic hardships. The dynamics of this race will be closely watched as a potential bellwether for shifting political currents in traditionally conservative, working-class communities.