New data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) reveals a stark disparity in mortality rates between Australians receiving jobseeker payments and those not reliant on welfare support. The findings highlight a significantly higher risk of death among unemployed individuals living on jobseeker, attributed largely to the effects of poverty.

According to the AIHW report titled “Mortality outcomes among people receiving income support,” people aged 35 to 44 on jobseeker payments were nearly 10 times more likely to die in 2022 than their counterparts not receiving welfare. The death rate for this group stood at 288 per 100,000, compared with just 30 per 100,000 for those outside the welfare system.

These figures emerge against a backdrop where Australia’s official unemployment rate is managed at levels between 4.5% and 5%, as set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to control inflation and wage growth. This approach results in roughly 700,000 unemployed Australians, many of whom rely on jobseeker payments that fall significantly below the poverty line.

Currently, the jobseeker payment is estimated to be approximately half the poverty threshold—about $300 per week less than what is needed for a single person to meet basic living standards. The only notable exception was during the COVID-19 pandemic when the federal government temporarily doubled the jobseeker rate, resulting in a 32% decline in the death rate among this group in 2020, from 328 to 224 deaths per 100,000.

However, analysts caution against attributing the reduced mortality solely to the increase in payments, noting that the pandemic-related lockdowns also doubled unemployment figures with many newly unemployed individuals previously living above poverty, which may have influenced the mortality statistics.

Since 2020, mortality rates among people on jobseeker have climbed again, reaching 326 deaths per 100,000 in 2022. Meanwhile, mortality rates for Australians aged 22 to 64 not receiving welfare continued to decline, widening the gap between the two groups. For all unemployed individuals in that age range, the likelihood of death is now nearly five times higher than for those not on welfare, representing the largest mortality disparity documented in the AIHW report.

In 2022, a total of 3,985 deaths were recorded among those on jobseeker payments. If mortality rates had remained at the lower 2020 level, an estimated 1,246 lives might have been saved. Further, if mortality among jobseeker recipients could be reduced to the rates observed in the non-welfare population, more than 3,100 deaths could potentially be prevented each year.

The link between poverty and mortality is explained by factors such as inadequate nutrition, limited access to healthcare, and barriers to engaging in health-promoting activities. Experts argue that increasing jobseeker payments to meet or exceed the poverty line—estimated to cost around $1 billion annually—could substantially reduce these health risks. This cost is relatively modest compared to incentives provided to higher-income earners, such as the $22.5 billion estimated in superannuation tax breaks for the top 10% of earners in the current financial year.

The data underscores ongoing concerns about the social and economic consequences of maintaining low welfare payments and highlights the potential public health benefits of policy reforms aimed at alleviating poverty among the unemployed.