Thousands of Israeli citizens living abroad are planning to return home to vote in the country’s national elections on Tuesday, with many intending to cast ballots against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies. Unlike most democracies, Israel does not permit absentee voting for citizens residing overseas, prompting a significant number of expatriates to travel back to participate in what is shaping up to be a closely contested race.

Among those making the journey is Bar Luzon, a 32-year-old Israeli academic at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who has not voted in Israeli elections since moving to the United States eight years ago. Luzon cited the government’s response to the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and recent political developments, including attempts to ban Arab parties from the election, as motivations to engage actively in the vote. “It feels like the country is not functioning, in a scary way,” she said, expressing concerns about racism and the government’s treatment of its own citizens.

The phenomenon is not isolated. An estimated 630,000 Israeli citizens—roughly 6 percent of the country’s population—live abroad, according to the Institute for Jewish Policy Research. The American-Israel Democracy Coalition, a U.S.-based group assisting expatriate voters with logistics and chartered flights, expects over 50,000 to travel to Israel for the elections. The potential impact of this voter bloc is magnified by polls showing a dead heat between Netanyahu’s governing coalition and the opposition.

Historically, votes from abroad have influenced tight elections in Israel, most notably in 1996 when Netanyahu won his first term by a narrow margin, aided partly by conservative voters who returned to cast ballots. Experts note that small vote shifts can lead to significant parliamentary changes in Israel’s proportional representation system. In the 2022 election, for instance, Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition secured a majority of seats despite receiving less than half of the popular vote due to key opposition parties failing to cross the electoral threshold.

Israeli expatriates tend to be more liberal and educated, often coming from urban centers like Tel Aviv, which correlates with greater support for opposition parties, according to political scientist Yael Shomer of Tel Aviv University. This demographic shift has raised concerns among Netanyahu’s Likud party, which has criticized efforts to mobilize overseas voters. Communications Minister Shlomo Kahri dismissed these attempts as efforts by the left to bring “masses of people from abroad” to influence the outcome.

While many expatriates oppose Netanyahu, some remain supportive. Ricki Alon, an entrepreneur from California, said she would vote for Netanyahu, citing his experience and leadership skills amid the ongoing crisis. Conversely, figures such as former special forces captain Danny Peleg, now living in Colorado, expressed fears that another Netanyahu term could threaten Israel’s democratic character and prolong conflict.

The election’s timing and the polarized political climate, intensified by the fallout from last year’s Hamas attack and ongoing corruption trials involving Netanyahu, have galvanized the overseas Israeli community. Many, like Luzon, see their participation as critical despite the logistical challenges. “I want to be there to celebrate if we manage to replace this horrible government,” she said. If not, she added, she prefers to share her disappointment with friends in Israel rather than face it alone abroad.