Farmers in the eastern Indian state of Odisha face significant uncertainty as a "super" El Niño event threatens to disrupt the region’s vital monsoon season, crucial for agriculture. Traditionally, the Raja festival held from June 14 to 16 signals the start of the rainy season and the beginning of crop sowing. This year, however, fields remained dry and skies clear during the festival period as monsoon rains arrived late, only beginning at the end of June.

Global meteorologists predict a strong El Niño weather cycle intensifying from July through September, often linked to below-average monsoon rainfall in India. El Niño years typically bring delayed and uneven precipitation, dry spells, and soaring temperatures that contribute to agricultural droughts, energy demand spikes, and water shortages. By the end of June, Odisha had experienced a 40% rainfall deficit, and although there was some catch-up rain in early July, the drought's impact persisted.

Despite these challenges, farmers in Laxmipur village cautiously started sowing paddy seeds in late June, hoping rains would sufficiently support germination. Local farmer Mangala Sabar recalled difficulties during previous El Niño years in 2023 and 2024, when multiple transplanting attempts failed and entire crops were lost.

Water availability remains a critical concern. In Mali Jagannathpur village near the Rushikulya River, farmers depend on canal water from nearby reservoirs to irrigate fields, but not all have access. For widowed farmer K Sukumari, a 28-year-old mother of two, the drying borewell and inconsistent rainfall have made it impossible to cultivate rice on her late husband’s land. She supplements her income through seasonal labor in brick kilns and other farms.

Experts note that reduced rainfall and low soil moisture during El Niño hamper water storage in reservoirs and natural water bodies, affecting both monsoon and subsequent winter crops. Nitin Bassi, a water management expert at the Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water, emphasized the importance of soil saturation for effective runoff into water storage systems.

While drought is not a new challenge in Odisha, the intensity and frequency pose increasing strain. Chandni Singh, an Indian Institute for Human Settlements researcher and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change lead author, highlighted the limitations of constant on-site adaptation by farming households and the role of migration as a risk diversification strategy. Remittances from migrant family members have become an important source of income in many villages.

Addressing long-term resilience, local development organization Gram Vikas has implemented initiatives including hyperlocal weather forecasting, aquifer mapping, and water conservation measures. One of their weather stations is located in Laxmipur village, where weekly forecasts are displayed publicly in the Odia language, and updated information is disseminated via WhatsApp.

The India Meteorological Department has also enhanced its forecasting capability, offering monsoon predictions up to 30 days in advance to millions of farmers. Government advisories recommended delaying sowing, selecting drought-resistant crops, and using less water-intensive varieties. However, uptake of these advisories remains limited, as farmers depend heavily on traditional knowledge—interpreting local environmental cues like soil conditions, insect activity, and cloud patterns—to guide planting decisions.

Although localized heavy rains reduced the overall monsoon deficit in parts of Odisha to about 21%, uncertainty persists as the El Niño event strengthens through the peak growing season. For farmers like Mangala Sabar, the decision to sow seeds continues despite the unpredictability. "How can we know if it will rain adequately or not? We will sow the seeds regardless because we are farmers," she said. "Let’s see what happens."