As Indonesia marks two years under President Prabowo Subianto’s leadership, the government’s handling of recent forest and land fires has drawn scrutiny, especially regarding its response to offers of international firefighting assistance. Smoke from the fires has spread to neighboring Singapore and Malaysia, prompting criticism of Jakarta’s initial reluctance to accept support from these countries.

Despite welcoming Malaysian offers of aircraft and personnel in September, Indonesia delayed formal acceptance. Foreign Minister Armanatha Nasir announced on October 15 that President Prabowo had given the green light to accept foreign aid, with technical discussions underway. Japanese helicopters began operations in firefighting efforts earlier in September, and Indonesia has acknowledged offers from China and Russia, though deployments from these countries remain unconfirmed.

The crisis has highlighted structural issues within the Indonesian government’s disaster response framework. Constitutional law expert Divirti Susanti attributed delays to a centralized, military-style leadership approach under Prabowo, in which officials hesitate to act without explicit presidential approval. “People in ministries and government agencies are very afraid to act unless Prabowo gives them the green light,” she said, describing a culture of micromanagement and an “excessively narrow sense of nationalism” that may impede timely collaboration with international partners.

In conjunction with addressing the fires, President Prabowo replaced the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) chief Suharyanto with Army General Kristio Sugistari on October 15 and installed new leadership at the agency responsible for peatland and mangrove restoration. Meanwhile, the Corruption Eradication Commission is investigating allegations of irregularities related to emergency procurement for firefighting equipment at BNPB.

Public opinion reflects growing unease with Prabowo’s governance. A national survey conducted in early October by a leading Indonesian polling firm showed a sharp decline in satisfaction with the president’s performance, falling to 44.5% from 81.2% in late 2025. Other studies reflect widespread stress among Indonesians linked to government policies and the president’s behavior, although one survey released by the Cabinet Secretariat reported a 65.2% satisfaction rate during a similar period.

Prabowo’s administration has consolidated political power since his October 2024 inauguration, constructing a broad coalition that includes former opponents. Analysts say this has reduced parliamentary oversight and opposition effectiveness, raising concerns about unchecked executive authority. Additionally, military leadership has become more prominent within civilian government roles.

The president has defended his handling of disaster management, acknowledging bureaucratic shortcomings and promising rapid deployment upon detection of fire hotspots. He has emphasized the government’s openness to international assistance and highlighted procurement of firefighting aircraft and drones.

Beyond disaster response, Prabowo has pursued ambitious social programs targeting nutrition, education, and healthcare for disadvantaged Indonesians. However, these initiatives face challenges, including allegations of corruption and food safety issues affecting tens of thousands, notably within the free nutritious meals program. Experts also question whether the substantial fiscal outlays for such programs have come at the expense of other economic priorities, such as job creation and food price stabilization.

Indonesia’s economy has encountered fresh challenges amid these developments. On October 16, global index provider MSCI proposed downgrading Indonesia’s market status, citing concerns over opaque shareholding structures and governance. The resulting stock market plunge reflected investor anxiety, and analysts urged Indonesian regulators to respond more proactively.

Nevertheless, Prabowo appointed Suahasil Nazara as finance minister in September, signaling a commitment to fiscal discipline and improved budget management. While confidence in the economy remains mixed, the president emphasizes Indonesia’s resource sovereignty and ongoing attractiveness to global investors.

On the diplomatic front, Prabowo has sought to elevate Indonesia’s international standing through engagement with BRICS and participation in global peace initiatives. Jakarta has maintained its traditional non-aligned stance and good relations with ASEAN neighbors, although critics warn that recurring regional issues—such as the transboundary haze and territorial disputes—have not received adequate attention.

As smoke from forest fires continues to affect Southeast Asia, the administration’s handling of the crisis may influence Indonesia’s regional reputation. Analysts caution that failure to effectively address these environmental challenges could erode the country's standing within ASEAN and diminish its role as a regional leader.