Inflation in the United Kingdom rose to 3.5% in the year to September, marking the highest rate in nearly a year, according to data released Wednesday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The increase from 3.1% in August surpassed economists’ expectations of 3.4% and further exceeded the Bank of England’s target inflation rate of 2%.

A significant driver of the rising prices was the transport sector, with motor fuel costs experiencing a sharp 30% annual increase in September, up from 23% in August. The upward pressure on fuel prices has been largely attributed to disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which has created bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz—a vital route for global oil and gas shipments—thereby tightening energy supplies worldwide.

This inflationary surge intensifies concerns over the cost of living for households across the UK. Treasury chief John Healey indicated that his upcoming budget statement, scheduled for next week, will seek to provide relief for both businesses and consumers grappling with rising expenses.

Market analysts widely anticipate that the Bank of England will respond to the inflation uptick by increasing interest rates at its next policy meeting on November 5. Although the bank maintained its main interest rate at 3.75% during the previous session, its commentary suggested an impending hike. Most forecasts point to a rise in the benchmark rate to 4%, reversing a previous downtrend from a 15-year peak of 5.25% earlier this year.

The inflation pressures and tightening monetary policy follow international developments earlier this year, notably after U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran in late February, which have contributed to instability in energy markets and heightened global supply risks.