In recent weeks, the Black Sea has become the focus of intensified attacks on commercial shipping that are raising concerns about escalating conflict risks near the borders of NATO member states. Since early October, multiple cargo ships operating in or near the exclusive economic zones of Bulgaria and Romania have been targeted by drones suspected to be deployed by Russian forces.
On October 6, the Turkish-owned cargo ship Alfa Watan was struck by what is believed to be a combination of Russian air and naval drones approximately 70 miles off the Bulgarian coast near Byala. The Bulgarian ferry Dioscuria arrived on the scene to find an overturned lifeboat and lifejackets adrift, but the fate of Alfa Watan’s crew of ten remains unclear. A week later, another ship, HS Dignity, was attacked off Bulgaria’s coast, resulting in the deaths of eleven crew members. Subsequent strikes targeted two chemical tankers, Wine Trader and Yara J, near Romanian territorial waters, with seven sailors reported missing.
Over the course of ten days, six vessels—including Abel and Chelsea-3—have come under attack in the Black Sea, marking a significant escalation in maritime hostilities. Analysts from maritime insurer Ambrey report a sharp rise in the frequency and geographic spread of these attacks since July, with Russian forces responsible for an estimated 80 percent. The tactic has shifted towards using “double tap” strikes involving both aerial and surface drones, the latter carrying large explosive payloads. Smaller vessels that use key waterways such as the Danube have been particularly vulnerable and often sink rapidly following attacks.
The targeted ships largely engage in trade with Ukraine, specifically the export of grain and agricultural products, which are vital to Kyiv’s economy. Experts argue these attacks are aimed at undermining Ukraine’s export capabilities and have led to a drastic reduction in the number of vessels calling at Ukrainian ports. The ensuing risk has caused insurance premiums for shipping in the region to skyrocket, and many operators have become reluctant to transit the Black Sea, even on cargoes unrelated to Ukraine.
The conflict’s impact extends beyond direct attacks on vessels. Ports in Ukraine have experienced a sharp increase in strikes, while NATO member states bordering the Black Sea now face rising security challenges. Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Rumen Radev has condemned the attacks near his country’s territorial waters as “absolutely unacceptable” and called for enhanced cooperation among the European Union, NATO, and regional neighbors Turkey and Romania to improve maritime security. Although Bulgarian officials have not officially assigned blame, Radev noted there is “no logic” suggesting Ukraine would target its own shipments, implying that Russia stands to benefit most.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the targeting of commercial vessels and civilian crews, emphasizing the human cost of these attacks. Meanwhile, a senior British military adviser cautioned such strikes may violate international humanitarian law, particularly when they fail to distinguish between military and civilian targets.
The intensification of maritime hostilities near NATO borders has fueled speculation that affected member states might invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which calls for consultations in response to perceived security threats. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently met with Bulgarian and Romanian leaders to discuss reinforcing deterrence and defense measures in the Black Sea region.
Beyond security concerns, the attacks jeopardize a crucial global food supply chain. Ukraine and Russia are major grain exporters, and disruptions to Black Sea shipping threaten to exacerbate worldwide food insecurity. UN maritime officials warn that the rising number of incidents, alongside conflicts in other strategic waterways such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, have made seafaring an increasingly perilous occupation, reflecting a broader pattern of shipping becoming a tool of geopolitical leverage.