The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has significantly disrupted international travel patterns, leading to a notable decline in long-haul tourism while presenting opportunities for increased intra-Asian travel, according to travel industry experts.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand recently revised its forecast for long-haul visitor arrivals in 2026, lowering the expected figure from 11 million to 10 million amid the instability. Despite this downturn, arrivals from regional markets such as China and India demonstrated robust growth. Chinese tourist numbers surged by more than 18 percent to reach 2.3 million, while Indian arrivals grew by roughly 8 percent to around one million visitors, signaling a strong recovery from nearby countries.

Industry insiders attribute these shifts to the impact of the Middle East conflict on global air travel. Paul Edmundus Talo, director of Floressa Bali Tours and Bali Flores Adventure, noted that ongoing tensions have disrupted international flight schedules, raised ticket prices, and created uncertainty among travelers. Airfares between Asia and Europe, in particular, have soared since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran in late February. Analysis from FlightsFinder.com in March highlighted a nearly 300 percent increase in fares on direct Asian-European routes, adding as much as $2,330 in additional costs for travelers.

Despite these challenges, experts remain cautiously optimistic about the potential for intra-regional travel within Asia to support the tourism sector’s recovery. Gary Bowerman, managing director of the Asia Travel Re:Set newsletter, emphasized that while global geopolitical and economic headwinds—such as currency fluctuations, rising interest rates, and higher living costs—pose risks, demand for travel within Southeast Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific region remains resilient. Bowerman warned, however, that the Middle East conflict’s economic repercussions are expected to persist in various Asian markets throughout the latter half of 2026, urging destinations to diversify their visitor base to enhance long-term stability.

Several Southeast Asian countries are actively pursuing strategies to capitalize on the rebounding Chinese tourist market. Thailand plans to attract 7.5 million Chinese visitors this year, leveraging social media campaigns and cultural tie-ins like the popular Chinese film Dear You, which features several Thai filming locations. Cambodia initiated a four-month visa-free trial with multiple-entry privileges specifically for Chinese tourists beginning June 15, aiming to rejuvenate visitor numbers to key sites such as Siem Reap Province. Khiev Thy, president of the Siem Reap Angkor Guides Association, stressed that the visa exemption is vital to drawing back Chinese travelers after recent declines.

Similarly, Bali has been adapting rapidly by intensifying its focus on Chinese visitors following a drop in Western tourists. Among measures implemented, said Ye Lu, head of the China market for the Bali Tourism Board, are streamlined visa procedures, increased direct flight connections, enhanced training for Chinese-speaking guides, and expanded acceptance of popular payment platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay. These efforts seek to mitigate the current shortfall and capture emerging opportunities in the intra-Asian travel segment.