Elon Musk’s recent introduction of a new “flying” Tesla Roadster at a SpaceX testing site in Texas has reignited speculation about a potential merger between the two companies. Market observers and prediction platforms are increasingly anticipating that Tesla and SpaceX could combine operations in the near future.

Barclays analysts have highlighted the growing consensus around the possibility of a merger, suggesting that an announcement could occur before Tesla’s annual general meeting, scheduled by December 6. While analysts acknowledge the timing may slip into late October or early November, they note that any delay could complicate merger approval during the AGM process.

The companies involved represent substantial market value, with SpaceX’s recent public offering in June valuing it at nearly $2 trillion, and Tesla’s market capitalization standing at approximately $1.4 trillion. These figures have caught the attention of bettors on platforms such as Kalshi, which currently assign about a 50% probability to a merger occurring by March 1, rising to nearly 60% by April 1 and approaching 80% chances by the end of 2027.

The idea of merging Tesla and SpaceX surfaced in discussions leading up to SpaceX’s IPO, fueled in part by SpaceX’s purchase of approximately $100 million worth of Tesla Cybertrucks in 2025. However, Musk ultimately merged SpaceX with his artificial intelligence venture, xAI, instead of Tesla.

Despite the absence of a formal merger, collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX has continued. In the second quarter of 2026, SpaceX acquired nearly $300 million worth of Tesla’s utility-scale Megapack battery systems intended for its artificial intelligence data centers. Musk’s choice to debut the “flying” Roadster at a SpaceX site is viewed by some analysts as a signal of an increasingly integrated relationship between the two companies.

Neither Tesla nor SpaceX responded to requests for comment regarding the merger speculation or recent developments.