Investors in mainland China and Hong Kong are cautiously watching the upcoming meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, scheduled for September 24 in Washington. While market participants recognize the event as a potential catalyst for volatility, expectations for significant breakthroughs remain low.

The summit follows Trump’s state visit to China in May, which generated more marked market reactions. This time, however, traders are less focused on the meeting amid wider concerns about U.S. monetary tightening and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Over the past month, mainland China’s CSI 300 Index has declined nearly 4 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has slipped about 1 percent. This contrasts with gains exceeding 3 percent in both indices prior to the May summit.

Market analysts anticipate the talks will mainly reaffirm existing agreements rather than yield new, transformative deals. It is expected that the two leaders will extend the current trade truce and possibly sign agreements in select industries, such as technology, electric vehicles, and aerospace. Xi may be accompanied by top business executives from these sectors, mirroring the delegation of American CEOs who accompanied Trump on his visit to China.

According to BNP Paribas, the summit is likely to focus on maintaining “constructive strategic stability” through the completion of previously agreed trade commitments and an extension of tariff suspensions. William Bratton, head of cash equity research for Asia-Pacific at BNP Paribas, noted that investors should temper their expectations, as the event is unlikely to deliver outcomes that substantially boost China’s or Asia’s equity markets.

Barclays emphasized that the talks are intended to manage stabilization efforts amid ongoing trade, technology, and geopolitical challenges, aiming to preserve dialogue ahead of significant political milestones such as the U.S. midterm elections in November. Similarly, UBS Global Wealth Management anticipates that while major structural disputes will remain unresolved, the summit could reinforce the prevailing status quo and signal that the framework established during the May visit endures.

Offshore investor sentiment reflects cautious optimism. A recent Goldman Sachs survey found that 46 percent of respondents expect modest gains in Chinese stocks in the month following the meeting. Goldman Sachs described the baseline outlook as “likely stabilization” in U.S.-China relations rather than material improvement or deterioration, predicting a “managed, albeit fragile, détente” characterized by targeted agreements without broader reconciliation.

Both countries appear motivated to avoid a renewed escalation, but ongoing strategic competition over trade, technology, and national security is expected to continue shaping bilateral relations. The September meeting is thus viewed as a platform to sustain dialogue and manage tensions amid these persistent challenges.