Iran is preparing for a possible escalation in conflict with Israel and the United States regardless of the outcomes of recent elections in both countries, according to analysts and officials monitoring the situation.
Last week’s elections in Israel resulted in neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition nor the main opposition bloc, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, securing enough support to form a government. This has introduced a period of political uncertainty in Israel. Meanwhile, in the United States, Democrats appeared poised to gain control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections held Tuesday, though the extent of their victories and the balance of the Senate remained uncertain. These results could influence the U.S. government's approach to ongoing tensions with Iran.
Despite the electoral shifts, Tehran has signaled an expectation of continued hostilities. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei recently instructed Iran’s armed forces to maintain a posture of immediate response to any level of threat in order to establish "maximum deterrence." He emphasized readiness to target U.S. and Israeli interests across various domains. Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, indicated that Iranian forces have been anticipating renewed conflict for weeks and preparing accordingly.
Views within Tehran regarding Israel’s political changes suggest that Iran might welcome the removal of Netanyahu, who was seen as instrumental in pushing the Trump administration toward aggressive stances, including airstrikes and sanctions. Mohammad Saleh Sedghian, director of the Arab Center for Iranian Studies in Tehran, noted that while a change in Israeli leadership might temporarily alter tactics, long-standing hostility between the two countries is likely to persist. Azizi echoed this, warning against expecting any fundamental improvement in Israel-Iran relations.
Iran also appears poised to continue its more assertive posture, having moved away from its previous strategy of strategic patience. Even if the new Israeli government adopts covert operations instead of overt conflict, Iran could respond with direct military action.
Regarding the United States, Iranian officials are closely watching the impact of the war on U.S. domestic politics, particularly President Donald Trump’s position ahead of the midterms. Some analysts suggest that a deal with Iran could politically benefit Trump, though Tehran remains reluctant to make the concessions demanded by the Trump administration. A social media post by Mostafa Najafi, an analyst with reported ties to hard-line nuclear negotiator Mohsen Rezaei, indicated that the U.S. had sought de-escalation in the lead-up to the elections but insisted on nuclear concessions Iran has yet to accept. Najafi warned that failure to reach an agreement soon could lead to renewed confrontation after the vote.
Diplomatic efforts continue amid these tensions. A recent letter from U.S. Vice President JD Vance to Mohsen Rezaei proposed new comprehensive talks, bypassing Iran’s civilian government. In addition, a Qatari delegation has arrived in Tehran to mediate discussions, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi describing the outreach as a positive step and noting that Iran is reviewing proposals related to its nuclear program.
Despite these diplomatic moves, significant challenges remain. Experts highlight persistent gaps over issues such as sanctions relief, nuclear oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the scope of Iran’s nuclear commitments. Mehrzad Boroujerdi, an Iran specialist, described Tehran’s approach as a dual-track strategy involving intermittent negotiations while preparing for potential military conflict.
Iran has set multiple preconditions for any interim agreement, including lifting the U.S. naval blockade, ending hostilities in regional conflicts such as Lebanon, releasing frozen Iranian assets, and recognizing Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. Najafi conveyed skepticism within the Iranian leadership about the prospects of a lasting accord, noting deep mistrust of U.S. intentions and a complex, intertwined conflict unlikely to be resolved quickly through negotiations.
Overall, while diplomatic channels remain open, Iran’s leadership appears ready to face increased tensions regardless of the political landscape in Israel and the United States in the near term.