New data from tanker tracking firms suggests that Iran can sustain its oil production and storage capacity for approximately two more months, challenging recent assertions by the United States about imminent constraints. HFI Research, citing satellite and tanker monitoring, estimates that Iran has access to around 20 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and onshore storage capacity equivalent to roughly 50 million barrels. At an export rate of about 1.7 million barrels per day, this would allow Iran to maintain operations for close to 53 days.

These findings contrast with claims made by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has asserted that Iran would only be able to continue producing and storing oil for a few more days. Despite a heightened U.S. naval presence and an ongoing maritime blockade aimed at curbing Tehran’s oil exports, Iran appears to be successfully moving crude oil out of the country. Recent reports indicate that at least 4.6 million barrels—valued at nearly $400 million—have been loaded at Iranian terminals in recent days, with an additional four million barrels reported to have crossed the blockade.

Satellite imagery has revealed some tankers "going dark," turning off their transponders to avoid detection and facilitate deliveries beyond restricted zones. Iran’s geographical position along the northern coast of the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic chokepoint for global oil shipments—likely aids this evasion, allowing Tehran to sustain a more resilient export network than market observers previously assumed.

Despite intensifying U.S. maritime pressure in the region, vessels tied to Iran’s oil fleet remain active but have reportedly adjusted their positions, possibly to reduce vulnerability. For instance, tanker tracking data indicates a supertanker with a capacity of up to two million barrels remains anchored west of Iranian waters, rather than departing as expected.

In response to U.S. actions in the Gulf, regional and international figures have voiced opposition to Washington’s tactics. Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi emphasized the need for ongoing diplomacy to maintain freedom of navigation and called on regional states to jointly ensure the security of vital shipping lanes and the release of detained seafarers. Similarly, Russia’s envoy to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, criticized U.S. pressure tactics, describing them as "blackmail, ultimatums and deadlines" and urged Washington to remove coercive elements from its negotiations with Iran.

While the Trump administration warns of impending bottlenecks if Iran fails to store or export oil under tightening restrictions, this latest data complicates that narrative. Analysts suggest that as long as Iran can continue partial oil sales, the risk of an immediate surge in crude prices is reduced. For significant market disruption or record price spikes to occur, more severe events such as direct attacks on oil infrastructure, a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, or a collapse in diplomatic efforts would likely be required.